Trump shifts burden of regime change on to the people of Iran

Following the decapitation of the Iranian leadership by the ongoing joint US-Israeli military operations in Iran, and the retaliatory strikes by the beleaguered regime across the Gulf states,Tehran appears to be doubling down for a protracted face-off with an uneasy alliance between Washington and London.

US President Donald Trump’s display of hubris in Iran is being called out by Congress that is set to vote on a bill to curb the war powers of the White House, and comes on the heels of strong condemnation of both combatants in the conflict by the UN.

But, faced with the lessons of history and the parallels to the catastrophic outcomes of the misadventure of the 2023 invasion of Iraq, the Trump administration is not keen to prolong its engagement and risk drawing the US into the quagmire of an open-ended war.

But the current cycle of hostilities is unlikely to wrap up within the five-week limit set by Trump. Tehran is moving to a gameplan aimed at unravelling America’s military goals by upping their economic cost in the region and beyond.

Its drone and missile attacks targeting oil and natural gas installations, located in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, follows a strategy of unleashing an economic crisis by causing a global spike in fuel prices. This has left the Trump administration looking for an exit plan that hinges on bequeathing the fallout of its military operation in Iran, and the burden of regime change, on the Iranian public.

But Britain’s Keir Starmer, while repeating the historical pattern of abetting America’s war goals in the Middle East, has rightly pointed out that “regime change cannot come from the skies.”

At some point, the Trump administration must face the contingency of putting boots on the ground, which will be a recipe for disaster.

It is no coincidence that Trump’s muted musings of returning to the negotiating table have been met by recalcitrance from a defiant rump regime scrambling to defend its borders from external aggression as well as contain the implosion building from within on its streets.

The Western axis of the US and Britain must contend with the multilayered structure of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Removing supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei will not, in and of itself, bring down the regime. The Revolutionary Guards, the armed wing of the regime, still controls the streets.

A stratagem that has been tested in the past is to foment discord along the ethnic faultlines of the country by sowing the seeds of dissent among ethnic groups such as the Kurds and Baluchis. But the Trump administration lacks the time horizon to scope out those ethnic divides within Iran.

Washington is already scapegoating Israel for its joint declaration of war on Iran, saying Tel Aviv was determined to go ahead with the airstrikes, with or without America.

The Trump administration’s Middle East policy appears incoherent at the moment. Attacking Iran and foisting the responsibility on the Iranian people to deal with the consequences amounts to an invitation to the regime to crack down on protesters.

Also, the Gulf states have lost their veneer of neutrality and immunity and are now having to recalibrate their security reliance on the US. Iran not only struck US military bases but also civilian sites and energy infrastructure in those countries.

The result could lead to a militarisation of GCC states in the future that runs counter to their collective identity as a commercial hub.

Iran’s reprisal strikes in the Gulf countries also show up the underlying sectarian dimension of the conflict. A weakened Shia stronghold such as Iran, presiding over a seriously debilitated network of proxies such as Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Houthis in Yemen, benefits Sunni bastion Saudi Arabia. The two countries have vied for dominance in the Middle East.

How Saudi Arabia acts in the current conflict will provide the contours of the region’s future in its aftermath.

As combat operations continue and with no endgame in sight, the Trump administration is counting on civil war erupting in Iran, leading to the collapse of the regime.

But that calculus rests on the Revolutionary Guards laying down its arms, failing which there promises to be more bloodletting on the streets of Iran in the days and weeks ahead.