The latest changes to immigration laws in America are sending a strong signal to Indian professionals and students: it may be possible to enter the United States but it is becoming increasingly difficult to stay there permanently.
The proposed procedural changes regarding processing green cards for H-1B visa holders (international students and skilled workers) may force many applicants to leave the United States and return home to finish the immigration process.
For Indians, who already experience some of the longest wait times for employment-based green cards in the world, this change is not simply a minor adjustment, but rather another layer on top of what is already an incredibly broken system.
Indians hold the majority of H-1B visas issued by the United States (approximately 70%), many of whom work in technology, engineering, healthcare, and research sectors.
Today, Indian professionals contribute significantly to the U.S. economy, working at numerous companies from Silicon Valley to hospitals and universities, yet remain stuck in a state of uncertainty regarding their temporary visas for decades. The following numbers provide perspective on how significant this problem has become:
Currently, in the United States, there are a total of 1.2 million Indians, together with their family members, who are all awaiting employment-based green cards. Because of the 7% per-country cap imposed by the U.S.
Government, Indians' wait times for their green cards will be some of the longest in the world, regardless of their skills, job experience or contributions.Experts on immigration policy estimate that most Indians seeking EB-2 or EB-3 visas could be looking out at a wait of a minimum of 50 years before being settled as lawful permanent residents, with some forecasts estimating this could exceed 100 years.
What we're not seeing anymore is any real reform; rather, we are seeing the institution of an extensive waiting period. Currently, the US issues around 140,000 employment-based green cards (-starting) each year.
However, the volume of Indian registered professionals applying for green cards dwarfs the issuance of those cards via regular channels. Therefore, thousands of highly qualified workers are stuck in temporary immigration statuses and find themselves unable to fully settle into a permanent household, freely switch jobs (employer obligations), or make long-term financial commitments.
The emotional and financial implications are mounting. For Indian professionals who wish to settle in the United States, their timeframes of uncertainty are often between 10 and 15 years.
Children born to legal Indian professionals (adjacent to applicants) lose their legal protections when they reach the age of 21. Many legal applicants with children delay purchasing houses, changing jobs, or travelling abroad, due to the uncertainty of visa renewal by the government.
Discouraged Indian students have now begun looking past the US to find greater opportunity. In 2024, over 330,000+ Indian students are expected to be studied in the US; India remains one of the largest international student groups within the United States.
Collectively, these students contribute over several billion dollars to the US economy each year through tuition and other living expenditures. However, with rising visa scrutiny and uncertainty regarding the ability to obtain a work permit and the ability to find a successful path to obtaining a lawful permanent residency green card, Generation Z Indian students are also having a different view about immigrating to the US than their parents did.
Unlike their parents, who saw the US as the only place to pursue a successful career, many youth of Generation Z in India are taking a more pragmatic view about immigrating to the US, and they are starting to see how other countries outside the US can provide better options to immigrate (i.e. Canada, Australia, Germany, Singapore, etc.).
The psychology of skilled Indian workers is also changing inside of and outside India. The evolution of new or emerging technology in India, the growing trend for remote working, and the developing information-age economy in India is taking the focus off of the long-standing notion of achieving the "American Dream". For a lot of skilled Indians, there is now a simple calculation for pursuing a career: opportunity is important; however, so is dignity and certainty.
That's where the US will lose its competitive advantage. The US is still heavily reliant on skilled foreign workers for many jobs in artificial intelligence, semiconductor manufacturing, healthcare and advanced research, and yet the current immigration policy will still create inconvenience for long-term applicants by creating numerous process bottlenecks.
The historical reason the US attracted talent was that the US provided opportunity and long-term permanent residency for immigration; increasingly, the US will only provide temporary opportunity.
The stars and stripes represent the goal of imagination and ambition for millions of people in different parts of the world; they also represent the permanent solution to long temporary waiting, admissibility to the United States, and a never-finished end to their journey to settle in America.
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