What to expect at 4pm today

Auckland and the rest of the country is on a knife-edge this afternoon: What will the 4 pm decision be?

The Health Ministry, the Cabinet and the government’s media staff would be in a long huddle as we speak. What could be the factors they are considering? 

Here are some potential scenarios and their ramifications:

• Auckland moves to Alert Level 3:
  This has been widely expected since the Prime Minister signaled it as a possibility last week. But at that time, the daily case numbers were on the downward trend and there was no case outside Auckland. Since that announcement, case numbers have climbed, though most are close family contacts and almost all linked. But cases have now popped up in the Waikato. New locations  of interest are still being added to Auckland’s list and new ones are also being announced in the Waikato.
  Auckland Mayor Phil Goff has been calling for a move to Level 3 where contactless takeaway deliveries and pickups are allowed. But a fairly large number of hospitality businesses have said it is unviable for many of them to operate in Level 3 conditions.
  A straw poll of parents that Indian Weekender conducted also showed reluctance on the part of many parents about sending their wards to schools in Level 3.
  There is a strong undercurrent among many Aucklanders that it would be still unsafe to go into Level 3 at this stage.
  If today it is decided that Auckland goes into Level 3, then that might well be a turning point in the country’s Elimination Strategy unless in the event of a further spread of cases, Auckland (and even perhaps the whole country) has to revert to Level 4. If this indeed happens, it would be a complete waste of the five-week Level 4 lockdown that we are in right now.
  That would be a disaster politically for the government.

• Auckland moves to Level 3 and Waikato also moves up to Level 3 from Level 2:
  This is a possibility that could be said to possibly contain the Waikato cases because it is too early to gauge the spread of cases at this stage. It is possible that this scenario might be in consideration as a solution that would assuage Aucklanders as well as help contain the potential spread in the Waikato.

• Auckland continues at Level 4, Waikato moves up to Level 3 and the rest of the country stays at Level 2
  New Zealand has not had three split levels so far and it might prove to be a logistical nightmare because the Auckland-Waikato region is the economic engine that drives the country’s economy. This is an unlikely scenario since it would be too complex and contentious to administer, even though it might have well be in consideration.

So, what is likely to happen then? 

In all likelihood, Auckland might continue in Level 4 for another week, which indeed would be the safest option to deal with the ‘long tail’ of Delta. That way, there will not be a need to deal with the repercussions of having to revert to Level 4 if cases get out of hand in Level 3. Today’s case count is still 22 after all.