ISSUE
Friday, August 15, 2025
Volume 16 . Issue 72
New Zealand physicist, Auckland University professor and director of a centre of research excellence in complex systems and data analytics has predicted the current outbreak of the deadly Delta variant in New Zealand to reach 1000.
Appearing on TVNZ One news today, Professor Shaun Hendy is predicting the latest COVID-19 outbreak to grow bigger than the one in August 2020.
Earlier in this pandemic, his team's modelling showed that if no measures were taken, the coronavirus could infect 89 percent of the New Zealand population and kill 80,000 people. Subsequently, his team's advice to the government contributed to strong suppression measures across the country, leading to level 4 lockdowns.
Hendy says the current outbreak is "more comparable to the March-April cluster from 2020 - we could be looking at around 1000 cases all up".
He says the current cases we're seeing are largely people who had been infected prior to the Level 4 lockdown, and, "those case numbers are still catching up".
"We won't see those numbers start to drop until, at best, later this week," he said.
"We would hope that we start to catch up with the edges of the cluster, as it was, last Tuesday, and then start to see numbers of infections that have occurred under Level 4 lockdown and those numbers should slowly decrease."
"We have been here before. We've dealt with two significant outbreaks in New Zealand successfully. We think Alert Level 4 should be strong enough to contain it, but it does depend on people doing their bit - sticking to the rules, sticking to their bubble.
Professor Hendy holds a PhD and was recently awarded the New Zealand order of merit and is a well respected desease modelling expert within New Zealand who appears to be strong proponent of the level 4 lockdown led strategy of elimination, the Prime Minister is following.
Credit: TVNZ - One News
New Zealand physicist, Auckland University professor and director of a centre of research excellence in complex systems and data analytics has predicted the current outbreak of the deadly Delta variant in New Zealand to reach 1000.
Appearing on TVNZ One news today, Professor Shaun Hendy is...
New Zealand physicist, Auckland University professor and director of a centre of research excellence in complex systems and data analytics has predicted the current outbreak of the deadly Delta variant in New Zealand to reach 1000.
Appearing on TVNZ One news today, Professor Shaun Hendy is predicting the latest COVID-19 outbreak to grow bigger than the one in August 2020.
Earlier in this pandemic, his team's modelling showed that if no measures were taken, the coronavirus could infect 89 percent of the New Zealand population and kill 80,000 people. Subsequently, his team's advice to the government contributed to strong suppression measures across the country, leading to level 4 lockdowns.
Hendy says the current outbreak is "more comparable to the March-April cluster from 2020 - we could be looking at around 1000 cases all up".
He says the current cases we're seeing are largely people who had been infected prior to the Level 4 lockdown, and, "those case numbers are still catching up".
"We won't see those numbers start to drop until, at best, later this week," he said.
"We would hope that we start to catch up with the edges of the cluster, as it was, last Tuesday, and then start to see numbers of infections that have occurred under Level 4 lockdown and those numbers should slowly decrease."
"We have been here before. We've dealt with two significant outbreaks in New Zealand successfully. We think Alert Level 4 should be strong enough to contain it, but it does depend on people doing their bit - sticking to the rules, sticking to their bubble.
Professor Hendy holds a PhD and was recently awarded the New Zealand order of merit and is a well respected desease modelling expert within New Zealand who appears to be strong proponent of the level 4 lockdown led strategy of elimination, the Prime Minister is following.
Credit: TVNZ - One News
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