New Zealand could face severe shortages of essential medicines—including antibiotics, heart drugs, and asthma treatments—if global trade is disrupted by a major catastrophe, researchers have warned. Reported by RNZ.
A study published in The New Zealand Medical Journal found that none of the country’s 10 most commonly prescribed medicines, such as paracetamol, amoxicillin, metoprolol, and salbutamol, can be manufactured locally.
Co-author Professor Nick Wilson of Otago University said that in the event of a nuclear war, pandemic, or trade disruption, New Zealand’s medicine supplies could vanish quickly. “This is a high level of vulnerability in a post-catastrophe situation,” he noted.
The main risk lies in the country’s reliance on imported petrochemical ingredients, as New Zealand no longer has refining facilities to produce them. Without these, stocks would run out—leading to preventable deaths from infections, heart disease, and asthma.
The study looked at:
- paracetamol
- omeprazole (for acute gastritis and treating gastric ulcers)
- amoxicillin, antibiotic to treat severe bacterial pneumonia
- ibuprofen (pain)
- aspirin, used to manage strokes and heart attacks
- metoprolol (blood pressure)
- salbutamol (asthma)
- prednisone, a steroid used for severe allergic reactions
- cetirizine (antihistamine)
- amlodipine (angina).
Globally, medicine production is heavily concentrated, with up to 80% of pharmaceutical ingredients coming from China and India.
To boost resilience, researchers suggested partnerships with Australia, which still has petrochemical capacity and produces morphine from opium poppies. They also proposed small-scale local production or exploring natural substitutes, like willow bark for aspirin.
Dr Matt Boyd, a co-author, said the most practical approach would be a joint New Zealand–Australia plan for manufacturing and trading critical medicines.
“New Zealand plans well for earthquakes,” Wilson said, “but our biggest threats to medicine supply could come from beyond our shores.”
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