National bounces back, narrows gap in new poll but Labour still leads

A newly released poll shows a shift in voter support, with the National Party climbing to 32%, a notable increase compared to the 28.4% it registered in a rival survey earlier this month.

According to a report by NZ Herald, the poll, conducted by Talbot Mills Research for corporate clients, places Labour in the lead at 35%, followed by National at 32%. The Greens and NZ First are tied at 11%, while Act stands at 7% and Te Pāti Māori at 2%.

The survey, prepared for Anacta Consulting and corporate stakeholders and reported by The Spinoff, has had its figures independently verified as accurate. Talbot Mills is also known for producing internal polling for the Labour Party.

Fieldwork for the poll was conducted between March 2 and March 12, a period that followed closely after the Taxpayers’ Union-Curia Poll, which had delivered a significant blow to National. The polling window began on the same day Christopher Luxon faced criticism over his handling of New Zealand’s stance on the Iran war, and it captured the political fallout that followed, the NZ Herald has reported.

If reflected in an election result, the numbers would lead to a hung Parliament, with both major blocs securing 61 seats each, alongside an overhang of two seats. This projection assumes Te Pāti Māori retains four electorate seats.

Accompanying commentary from Talbot Mills suggested the findings could offer reassurance to the Government, stating it “may be some solace for the Government and Prime Minister, after being pounded by near-hysterical analysis of the latest Curia poll,” as quoted by NZ Herald.

The poll also indicates a slightly more positive public outlook. According to the results, 46% of respondents believe the country is heading in the right direction, compared to 44% who think it is on the wrong track, as reported by NZ Herald.

However, sentiment around the economy remains largely negative. Only 32% described the economic situation as positive, while 67% viewed it as negative.

These indicators are considered key measures of overall public mood and can often signal broader political trends.