By 2048, around a third of New Zealand’s population will identify with Asian ethnicities, according to new projections from Stats NZ, reported by RNZ.
In 2023, 19 percent of the population identified as Asian. That figure is projected to rise to 33 percent within the next 25 years. The largest growth will be among those identifying with Indian heritage, expected to increase from 7 percent to about 12 percent of the population. Those identifying as Chinese are projected to grow from 6 percent to around 8 percent over the same period.
Stats NZ’s projections also indicate continued growth among Māori, Pacific, and Middle Eastern, Latin American and African (MELAA) populations, extending demographic shifts that have taken shape in recent decades. Meanwhile, the proportion of people identifying as “European or Other (including New Zealander)” is expected to decline — from 67 percent in 2023 to around 52 percent by 2048.
“Our ethnic populations are changing at different rates because of a combination of different age structures, birth and death rates, and patterns of migration,” said Victoria Treliving, population estimates and projections spokesperson for Stats NZ.
By 2048, Māori are expected to make up around 20 percent of the population (up from 18 percent), Pacific peoples 11 percent (up from 9 percent), and MELAA groups 4 percent (up from 2 percent).
Among children under 15, diversity is projected to rise even more sharply. The share of children identifying with Asian ethnicities is forecast to jump from 20 percent in 2023 to 34 percent in 2048, while proportions of Māori, Pacific, and MELAA children will also increase.
Stats NZ also projects ageing across all ethnic groups. For example, the Chinese ethnic population aged 65 and above is expected to rise from 12 percent in 2023 to 22 percent in 2048. Lower fertility rates, migration, and longer life expectancy are key drivers of these trends.
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