National’s leadership contest: Who has got the timing right?
Judith Collins, Simon Bridges, and Amy Adams have declared their intentions to be the next leader of the National Party.
The important question is who amongst them or any other dark horse as some commentators are suggesting, have got their timing right?
Timing is an important variable, often critical in the game of politics, especially when ambitions have to be laid out open in full public display.
With public display of ambitions comes relentless scrutiny, of those ambitions, ability and support among peers, which are supposedly blowing those ambitions in the first place.
Given that the timing of Bill English’s resignation was not perfect, if the interests of the National party are concerned, now the next obvious question that demands attention is that which contender has got the timing right to present themselves as a viable option where members of the caucus can put their money.
Yes, at the end it will be members of the caucus who will be putting their money on each one of them.
And it is completely human to expect they would be expected to vote according to their own best interests rather than what respective solicitors of their vote represent, or epitomises.
For instance, it will be hard to comment on who the so-called ‘backbenchers’ would vote for. One who can promise them ‘something meaty’ within the caucus in a future government or who will have enough star power and tactic in place to at least guarantee them back in parliament in 2020?
Especially the List MPs whose very existence in parliament could be in jeopardy by a minimal vote swing.
Indeed, not everyone would have the best timing for their respective leadership ambitions.
Probably, Paula Bennett and Niki Kaye had a clear understanding of this reality and therefore stopped short of taking a plunge on leadership.
In Paula Bennett’s case, it’s another matter that if she still considers herself not ready for the leadership role, despite being in the position of deputy leader for quite some time, then what’s the point of being in deputy leadership role at the first place.
After all, a deputy leader in any organisation is supposed to be nurtured for future leadership position whenever an opportunity presents itself, within that organisation, or elsewhere.
It seems that normal rules of life do not apply to the game of politics.
Anyway, for Judith Collins personally, this is the best time or the “time of her life”, in Jacinda Ardern’s words, to stake a claim on the leadership position, despite being aware of the fact that she might not have the numbers as some of her more socially amiable contenders might boast.
Probably taking a leaf from Jacinda Ardern’s famous “campaign of our lives” quote which she roared at her own elevation as the Labour Party Leader, Ms Collins had already launched a campaign of her life, launching a full-blown frontal attack on Ms Ardern.
Not many in the current political set up would have the political courage to attack Prime Minister Ms Ardern around her pregnancy and accompanied well-wishes.
By doing that, she has given an option to those outside the party, and within the caucus, that she is willing to take the battle to Ms Ardern if that’s what the caucus wants in 2020.
In doing so, she has presented herself as a formidable option, even if not a much likeable one (going by media commentaries doubting enough numbers behind her).
It remains to be seen what the National caucus would see in Ms Collins offer, but there is no doubt that personally, this is the best time for Ms Collins to throw the hat in the ring.
Simon Bridges was widely expected to throw his hat in the ring – probably he has become too predictable in terms of pursuing his ambitions – which is not necessarily the best trait in politics.
However, regardless of that, his timing of staking the claim of leadership is at best questionable, given that he did not have enough support for the deputy leadership role about 16 months ago when last time National went through a leadership change.
What makes him think that he will have required support this time is not clear.
Is it his unique combination of youth and experience, or his combativeness in the parliament?
Would it be enough to take on Jacinda in 2020?
Or more importantly, will his fellow caucus member would see him formidable or dependable enough to take on Jacinda in 2020.
Probably, he might have done better in 2020, given that Labour would have completed the first term in the government and it would have been clearer if Jacinda Ardern’s ‘stardust’ was growing or receding.
By not waiting till 2020, probably Mr Bridges is showing that he has put some kind of arbitrary deadline in his mind, till when he will remain in politics and achieve what he wants to achieve, otherwise choosing to move on.
It’s important that his fellow caucus colleagues do not sense that impatience or restlessness as they have to prepare for a long, and possibly worn out battle against Jacinda Ardern’s rising ‘stardust.’
Amy Adams indeed is the surprise element of this ensuing leadership contest, who has made a passionate plea to tick all boxes representing rural-urban, and liberal-conservative combination.
May be too good to be true!
Except that she chose to demonstrate a ‘power-play’ of getting four fellow caucus members to stand behind her to publically endorse her candidature.
By doing that, she may have broken the thumb rule that every caucus tries to enforce – not projecting a public image of a divided caucus.
Also, it is not clear if the national caucus would choose to take on Jacinda in 2020 under a leader, though competent, but slightly on the edges of National’s core sensitivities.
It will be interesting to see who will eventually win the race or have got the best timing.
So far it seems that Judith Collins is blessed with better timing than her competitors, even though she stands devoid of support, as of now.
But as they say, one week is a long time in politics.
Judith Collins, Simon Bridges, and Amy Adams have declared their intentions to be the next leader of the National Party.
The important question is who amongst them or any other dark horse as some commentators are suggesting, have got their timing right?
Timing is an important variable, often...
Judith Collins, Simon Bridges, and Amy Adams have declared their intentions to be the next leader of the National Party.
The important question is who amongst them or any other dark horse as some commentators are suggesting, have got their timing right?
Timing is an important variable, often critical in the game of politics, especially when ambitions have to be laid out open in full public display.
With public display of ambitions comes relentless scrutiny, of those ambitions, ability and support among peers, which are supposedly blowing those ambitions in the first place.
Given that the timing of Bill English’s resignation was not perfect, if the interests of the National party are concerned, now the next obvious question that demands attention is that which contender has got the timing right to present themselves as a viable option where members of the caucus can put their money.
Yes, at the end it will be members of the caucus who will be putting their money on each one of them.
And it is completely human to expect they would be expected to vote according to their own best interests rather than what respective solicitors of their vote represent, or epitomises.
For instance, it will be hard to comment on who the so-called ‘backbenchers’ would vote for. One who can promise them ‘something meaty’ within the caucus in a future government or who will have enough star power and tactic in place to at least guarantee them back in parliament in 2020?
Especially the List MPs whose very existence in parliament could be in jeopardy by a minimal vote swing.
Indeed, not everyone would have the best timing for their respective leadership ambitions.
Probably, Paula Bennett and Niki Kaye had a clear understanding of this reality and therefore stopped short of taking a plunge on leadership.
In Paula Bennett’s case, it’s another matter that if she still considers herself not ready for the leadership role, despite being in the position of deputy leader for quite some time, then what’s the point of being in deputy leadership role at the first place.
After all, a deputy leader in any organisation is supposed to be nurtured for future leadership position whenever an opportunity presents itself, within that organisation, or elsewhere.
It seems that normal rules of life do not apply to the game of politics.
Anyway, for Judith Collins personally, this is the best time or the “time of her life”, in Jacinda Ardern’s words, to stake a claim on the leadership position, despite being aware of the fact that she might not have the numbers as some of her more socially amiable contenders might boast.
Probably taking a leaf from Jacinda Ardern’s famous “campaign of our lives” quote which she roared at her own elevation as the Labour Party Leader, Ms Collins had already launched a campaign of her life, launching a full-blown frontal attack on Ms Ardern.
Not many in the current political set up would have the political courage to attack Prime Minister Ms Ardern around her pregnancy and accompanied well-wishes.
By doing that, she has given an option to those outside the party, and within the caucus, that she is willing to take the battle to Ms Ardern if that’s what the caucus wants in 2020.
In doing so, she has presented herself as a formidable option, even if not a much likeable one (going by media commentaries doubting enough numbers behind her).
It remains to be seen what the National caucus would see in Ms Collins offer, but there is no doubt that personally, this is the best time for Ms Collins to throw the hat in the ring.
Simon Bridges was widely expected to throw his hat in the ring – probably he has become too predictable in terms of pursuing his ambitions – which is not necessarily the best trait in politics.
However, regardless of that, his timing of staking the claim of leadership is at best questionable, given that he did not have enough support for the deputy leadership role about 16 months ago when last time National went through a leadership change.
What makes him think that he will have required support this time is not clear.
Is it his unique combination of youth and experience, or his combativeness in the parliament?
Would it be enough to take on Jacinda in 2020?
Or more importantly, will his fellow caucus member would see him formidable or dependable enough to take on Jacinda in 2020.
Probably, he might have done better in 2020, given that Labour would have completed the first term in the government and it would have been clearer if Jacinda Ardern’s ‘stardust’ was growing or receding.
By not waiting till 2020, probably Mr Bridges is showing that he has put some kind of arbitrary deadline in his mind, till when he will remain in politics and achieve what he wants to achieve, otherwise choosing to move on.
It’s important that his fellow caucus colleagues do not sense that impatience or restlessness as they have to prepare for a long, and possibly worn out battle against Jacinda Ardern’s rising ‘stardust.’
Amy Adams indeed is the surprise element of this ensuing leadership contest, who has made a passionate plea to tick all boxes representing rural-urban, and liberal-conservative combination.
May be too good to be true!
Except that she chose to demonstrate a ‘power-play’ of getting four fellow caucus members to stand behind her to publically endorse her candidature.
By doing that, she may have broken the thumb rule that every caucus tries to enforce – not projecting a public image of a divided caucus.
Also, it is not clear if the national caucus would choose to take on Jacinda in 2020 under a leader, though competent, but slightly on the edges of National’s core sensitivities.
It will be interesting to see who will eventually win the race or have got the best timing.
So far it seems that Judith Collins is blessed with better timing than her competitors, even though she stands devoid of support, as of now.
But as they say, one week is a long time in politics.
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