Who can give Nats a real chance against Jacinda in 2020?
The National Party leadership race has begun with Judith Collins making the first move and boldly laying out her claim for the position.
Ms Collins tweeted this morning “I’m announcing my candidacy for Leader of the NZ National Party. We’re going to need strong & decisive leadership if we’re going to win in 2020. I’m that person.”
Nikki Kaye and Paula Bennett have ruled out, and Dr Jonathan Coleman is still contemplating about how best to play his cards.
Simon Bridges has just now put forward his name for the leadership position.
In an announcement at Parliament this morning Mr Bridges said he believes he is the right person to lead the National Party to victory in 2020, bringing experience as well as a generational change.
It’s not sure if the race is still open with any more contenders throwing their hats for the leadership position.
Now the question is that who can give Nats a real chance against Jacinda in 2020.
If Winston Peters is to be believed, then no one in National Party today has any real chance against Jacinda Ardern in 2020.
However, regardless of his views, National Party succession will take place, and the contest in 2020 will happen.
It’s only that the nature of contest will depend on various factors and leader’s personality will be one major decisive factor determining the nature of the contest, if not the outcome of the contest.
Therefore National party is standing right now at a crucial juncture, if not at crossroads.
The Party only recently had a change of leadership, and since then the ship has largely been steady.
In fact, the Party had come out of elections with their vote share intact after three successive terms in government and were enjoying a unique position of being the strongest Opposition Party in New Zealand parliament and their Leader was performing reasonably well.
Regardless of much noise over the last two weeks about the call for change in Party leadership, there were not many visible signs of deterioration in Party’s fortune to warrant a change in leadership – except of course – the precedence.
Yes, there is unspoken precedence in NZ politics where a Party Leader gets only one chance in leading the Party through the elections.
Mr English had two chances though, and it was not because he was lucky, but more because of his hard work whereby he chose to endure for 15 years – a time span more than the entire political career of many less strong-willed career politicians, to earn the second chance at leadership.
So far apart from the exception of Mr English, the unspoken precedence of NZ politics has ruled the roost.
Therefore, the change in Party leadership was imminent, sooner or later; it’s only that timing was important.
And probably now, the timing was not just right!
Not just for the Party but also for many next-generation aspirants of leadership within the National Party (read Simon Bridges, Niki Kaye, Paula Bennett, etc.).
The reason being that the new government has just recently completed it’s 100 days in power and the “Stardust” of its Prime Minister is refusing to settle down.
Ms Ardern epitomises young, female, urban, charismatic and even a compassionate leader.
The question that Nats would be facing today is if their new leader should also be epitomising these same virtues and hence appealing the same constituency of voters in 2020.
Or should it stick to basics and appeal to their traditional voter base of the so-called old guard.
Probably this question would be playing up in the minds of the members of the National caucus and determining their votes for the aspirants to Party leadership.
To say that the National caucus is fully ready to take a leap of faith to take that generational change in its leadership will be an overstatement.
Moreover, the new generational leaders in the Party would also be unsure to take that leap of faith now, given that Ms Ardern’s popularity is still on high.
Probably this explains why Niki Kaye and Paula Bennett have quickly, and to some extent, rightly chosen to not spread their wings in the Party just right now.
Perhaps, Ms Collins has a reading of this dilemma within the caucus which explains her far more confident and audacious claim to leadership position than in 2016, when she was not as forthright as she is now.
She might have a feeling that she was not offering a major alternative option for the caucus, which she has now.
This time Ms Collins is giving an option to the National caucus of continuity and hence certainty as opposed to Simon Bridges option of generational change.
Now that Judith Collins and Simon Bridges are the main contenders, with the possibility of Dr Jonathan Coleman being a late entry in the race, the National caucus has the chance to demonstrate if they are ready to take the generational change.
The National Party leadership race has begun with Judith Collins making the first move and boldly laying out her claim for the position.
Ms Collins tweeted this morning “I’m announcing my candidacy for Leader of the NZ National Party. We’re going to need strong & decisive leadership if we’re going...
The National Party leadership race has begun with Judith Collins making the first move and boldly laying out her claim for the position.
Ms Collins tweeted this morning “I’m announcing my candidacy for Leader of the NZ National Party. We’re going to need strong & decisive leadership if we’re going to win in 2020. I’m that person.”
Nikki Kaye and Paula Bennett have ruled out, and Dr Jonathan Coleman is still contemplating about how best to play his cards.
Simon Bridges has just now put forward his name for the leadership position.
In an announcement at Parliament this morning Mr Bridges said he believes he is the right person to lead the National Party to victory in 2020, bringing experience as well as a generational change.
It’s not sure if the race is still open with any more contenders throwing their hats for the leadership position.
Now the question is that who can give Nats a real chance against Jacinda in 2020.
If Winston Peters is to be believed, then no one in National Party today has any real chance against Jacinda Ardern in 2020.
However, regardless of his views, National Party succession will take place, and the contest in 2020 will happen.
It’s only that the nature of contest will depend on various factors and leader’s personality will be one major decisive factor determining the nature of the contest, if not the outcome of the contest.
Therefore National party is standing right now at a crucial juncture, if not at crossroads.
The Party only recently had a change of leadership, and since then the ship has largely been steady.
In fact, the Party had come out of elections with their vote share intact after three successive terms in government and were enjoying a unique position of being the strongest Opposition Party in New Zealand parliament and their Leader was performing reasonably well.
Regardless of much noise over the last two weeks about the call for change in Party leadership, there were not many visible signs of deterioration in Party’s fortune to warrant a change in leadership – except of course – the precedence.
Yes, there is unspoken precedence in NZ politics where a Party Leader gets only one chance in leading the Party through the elections.
Mr English had two chances though, and it was not because he was lucky, but more because of his hard work whereby he chose to endure for 15 years – a time span more than the entire political career of many less strong-willed career politicians, to earn the second chance at leadership.
So far apart from the exception of Mr English, the unspoken precedence of NZ politics has ruled the roost.
Therefore, the change in Party leadership was imminent, sooner or later; it’s only that timing was important.
And probably now, the timing was not just right!
Not just for the Party but also for many next-generation aspirants of leadership within the National Party (read Simon Bridges, Niki Kaye, Paula Bennett, etc.).
The reason being that the new government has just recently completed it’s 100 days in power and the “Stardust” of its Prime Minister is refusing to settle down.
Ms Ardern epitomises young, female, urban, charismatic and even a compassionate leader.
The question that Nats would be facing today is if their new leader should also be epitomising these same virtues and hence appealing the same constituency of voters in 2020.
Or should it stick to basics and appeal to their traditional voter base of the so-called old guard.
Probably this question would be playing up in the minds of the members of the National caucus and determining their votes for the aspirants to Party leadership.
To say that the National caucus is fully ready to take a leap of faith to take that generational change in its leadership will be an overstatement.
Moreover, the new generational leaders in the Party would also be unsure to take that leap of faith now, given that Ms Ardern’s popularity is still on high.
Probably this explains why Niki Kaye and Paula Bennett have quickly, and to some extent, rightly chosen to not spread their wings in the Party just right now.
Perhaps, Ms Collins has a reading of this dilemma within the caucus which explains her far more confident and audacious claim to leadership position than in 2016, when she was not as forthright as she is now.
She might have a feeling that she was not offering a major alternative option for the caucus, which she has now.
This time Ms Collins is giving an option to the National caucus of continuity and hence certainty as opposed to Simon Bridges option of generational change.
Now that Judith Collins and Simon Bridges are the main contenders, with the possibility of Dr Jonathan Coleman being a late entry in the race, the National caucus has the chance to demonstrate if they are ready to take the generational change.
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