General elections, MMP electoral system, and the balance of power: How well prepared is the Kiwi-Indian community?
Since general elections are exactly six months away, with voting due on September 23, it is an opportune time to question the preparedness of the Kiwi-Indian community for the next elections.
Currently, the mainstream media is going gaga about the latest Newshub-Reid Research poll released on March 21, which shows National are rock solid at 47% vote with Labour-Green alliance falling short at a combined 42% with Winston Peters’ New Zealand First’s decisive seven per cent vote share.
It is being suggested that at the end, Mr Peters might tilt towards the National Party in the final bargain to power in lieu of some major portfolio and policy control.
There is nothing new in this poll apart from an awkward revelation that Labour's newly crowned Deputy Leader Jacinda Ardern is polling ahead of their Leader Andrew Little at 10.3% as opposed to Mr Little's 8.3% as the next preferred prime minister of the country.
While the mainstream media is busy in analysing possible future scenarios of this latest poll, which surveyed a sample population of 1,000 residents with a 3.1% margin error, the ethnic media may be grappling with one important question—what is in for me?
However, the reasons for this drift are not completely unreasonable.
In our case, the number of people, identifying with the Indian ethnic group in New Zealand has more than doubled, increasing from 62,187 to 155,178, in a period of 12 years from 2001 to 2013, the last census year.
Moreover, this manifold increase has primarily occurred through migration and not through birth in New Zealand, thus clearly indicating that for a majority of voters in the community, the electoral system in New Zealand is a new political system to comprehend.
Furthermore, the life cycle of migrants suggests that during the early formative years in the new country of residence, there is little attention towards politics purely because they are focused on more pressing needs of life such as gaining employment, housing, kids’ education and settling the business in their new home.
Against this backdrop, it is not altogether blasphemous to suggest that ethnic communities, or the 'new' migrants, including Kiwi-Indians, are less inclined towards participating in the political process.
Added to this, the public disdain that majority of ethnic Asian migrants bring from their places of origin towards the political processes in general leaves little incentive for being election-ready.
This piece intends to bridge this gap and educate the readers about the incentives for active engagement with the political process.
About general elections
New Zealand general elections generally occur every three years. Unlike some other countries, New Zealand has no fixed election date for general elections. Rather the prime minister determines the timing of general elections by advising the Governor-General when to issue the writs for a general election.
It is believed in some quarters, though not necessarily factually correct, that the prime minister's power to determine the election date can give some subtle advantages to the government of the day. It is to say that if the governing party believes that a section of the population will either vote against them or not at all, they might hold the election in early spring, when the weather may well keep less-committed voters away from the polls.
In the last decade, there had been a convention of holding elections on the last Saturday of November, which had been broken in 2014 when elections were held in the month of September.
Following this lead, some may argue that National Party may have some anxiety about getting their voters out on the Election Day, a challenge they had recently experienced in the Mt Roskill by-election late last year.
Labour, in this regard, do have some momentum on their side as demonstrated in the electoral outcome of Mt Roskill and Mt Albert by-election verdicts.
Mixed-member promotional (MMP) electoral system
The introduction of MMP electoral system in 1993 is often considered as one of the most significant constitutional change of the 20th-century New Zealand.
In this model, the voter casts two votes, the first for their preferred party and the second for an electorate MP.
During an election, the candidate who gets the most electorate votes wins. These party votes are counted on the basis of First Past the Post (FPP) system. So the candidate getting maximum votes is declared a winner and becomes an electorate MP.
However, a political party's seats in the parliament are not entirely dependent upon the number of electorate MPs.
Under current MMP rules, a political party that wins at least one electorate seat or five per cent of the party vote gets a share of the seats in the Parliament that is about the same as its share of the party vote. This share of seats is filled by a list of candidates nominated by the political party, and they are called as list MPs, as they are elected from the party list and not from a geographical constituency.
Political parties can, therefore, get seats in the parliament and thus a say in the legislation even without having won one single electorate.
It is to say that every party vote that a political party manages to get counts towards the possibility of getting seats in the parliament.
There are two important implications of New Zealand's MMP system.
First, every election in MMP system is a closely contested election regardless of their showings in the opinion polls.
Second, every single party vote counts towards determining who gets into the Parliament.
Probably, this should be one big enough incentive for the Indian community and other ethnic communities to engage with the political process in this country more proactively.
Balance of power in New Zealand politics
The balance of power is originally a concept of international politics but repeatedly used in New Zealand's domestic politics where it mainly implies who will have a decisive say in the forming of the government.
Since the introduction of MMP system in New Zealand, no one political party is confident of securing a dominant majority in the parliament, unlike many other democracies with First Past the Post system (say India), therefore leaving balance of power in the hands of several smaller parties and individual politicians.
According to the latest Newshub-Reid Research poll, National Party even with its current dominant lead over opposition will still secure 61 seats in parliament, one short of required majority to form the government.
New Zealand First's Winston Peters has long been projected to have that balance of power in 2017 elections.
Mr Peters has previously, on many occasions, enjoyed the balance of power in the Parliament, notably in 1996 and 2005, extracting much 'control' on important policies in return.
Recently, a newly formed New Zealand People Party (NZPP) for ethnic migrants has sought to claim this elusive balance of power in New Zealand politics, although, it appears a distant dream so far.
Clearly, incentives are galore for political engagement in this country, as every vote counts (especially party votes) and balance of power could be the precious prize.
Since general elections are exactly six months away, with voting due on September 23, it is an opportune time to question the preparedness of the Kiwi-Indian community for the next elections.
Currently, the mainstream media is going gaga about the latest Newshub-Reid Research poll released on March...
Since general elections are exactly six months away, with voting due on September 23, it is an opportune time to question the preparedness of the Kiwi-Indian community for the next elections.
Currently, the mainstream media is going gaga about the latest Newshub-Reid Research poll released on March 21, which shows National are rock solid at 47% vote with Labour-Green alliance falling short at a combined 42% with Winston Peters’ New Zealand First’s decisive seven per cent vote share.
It is being suggested that at the end, Mr Peters might tilt towards the National Party in the final bargain to power in lieu of some major portfolio and policy control.
There is nothing new in this poll apart from an awkward revelation that Labour's newly crowned Deputy Leader Jacinda Ardern is polling ahead of their Leader Andrew Little at 10.3% as opposed to Mr Little's 8.3% as the next preferred prime minister of the country.
While the mainstream media is busy in analysing possible future scenarios of this latest poll, which surveyed a sample population of 1,000 residents with a 3.1% margin error, the ethnic media may be grappling with one important question—what is in for me?
However, the reasons for this drift are not completely unreasonable.
In our case, the number of people, identifying with the Indian ethnic group in New Zealand has more than doubled, increasing from 62,187 to 155,178, in a period of 12 years from 2001 to 2013, the last census year.
Moreover, this manifold increase has primarily occurred through migration and not through birth in New Zealand, thus clearly indicating that for a majority of voters in the community, the electoral system in New Zealand is a new political system to comprehend.
Furthermore, the life cycle of migrants suggests that during the early formative years in the new country of residence, there is little attention towards politics purely because they are focused on more pressing needs of life such as gaining employment, housing, kids’ education and settling the business in their new home.
Against this backdrop, it is not altogether blasphemous to suggest that ethnic communities, or the 'new' migrants, including Kiwi-Indians, are less inclined towards participating in the political process.
Added to this, the public disdain that majority of ethnic Asian migrants bring from their places of origin towards the political processes in general leaves little incentive for being election-ready.
This piece intends to bridge this gap and educate the readers about the incentives for active engagement with the political process.
About general elections
New Zealand general elections generally occur every three years. Unlike some other countries, New Zealand has no fixed election date for general elections. Rather the prime minister determines the timing of general elections by advising the Governor-General when to issue the writs for a general election.
It is believed in some quarters, though not necessarily factually correct, that the prime minister's power to determine the election date can give some subtle advantages to the government of the day. It is to say that if the governing party believes that a section of the population will either vote against them or not at all, they might hold the election in early spring, when the weather may well keep less-committed voters away from the polls.
In the last decade, there had been a convention of holding elections on the last Saturday of November, which had been broken in 2014 when elections were held in the month of September.
Following this lead, some may argue that National Party may have some anxiety about getting their voters out on the Election Day, a challenge they had recently experienced in the Mt Roskill by-election late last year.
Labour, in this regard, do have some momentum on their side as demonstrated in the electoral outcome of Mt Roskill and Mt Albert by-election verdicts.
Mixed-member promotional (MMP) electoral system
The introduction of MMP electoral system in 1993 is often considered as one of the most significant constitutional change of the 20th-century New Zealand.
In this model, the voter casts two votes, the first for their preferred party and the second for an electorate MP.
During an election, the candidate who gets the most electorate votes wins. These party votes are counted on the basis of First Past the Post (FPP) system. So the candidate getting maximum votes is declared a winner and becomes an electorate MP.
However, a political party's seats in the parliament are not entirely dependent upon the number of electorate MPs.
Under current MMP rules, a political party that wins at least one electorate seat or five per cent of the party vote gets a share of the seats in the Parliament that is about the same as its share of the party vote. This share of seats is filled by a list of candidates nominated by the political party, and they are called as list MPs, as they are elected from the party list and not from a geographical constituency.
Political parties can, therefore, get seats in the parliament and thus a say in the legislation even without having won one single electorate.
It is to say that every party vote that a political party manages to get counts towards the possibility of getting seats in the parliament.
There are two important implications of New Zealand's MMP system.
First, every election in MMP system is a closely contested election regardless of their showings in the opinion polls.
Second, every single party vote counts towards determining who gets into the Parliament.
Probably, this should be one big enough incentive for the Indian community and other ethnic communities to engage with the political process in this country more proactively.
Balance of power in New Zealand politics
The balance of power is originally a concept of international politics but repeatedly used in New Zealand's domestic politics where it mainly implies who will have a decisive say in the forming of the government.
Since the introduction of MMP system in New Zealand, no one political party is confident of securing a dominant majority in the parliament, unlike many other democracies with First Past the Post system (say India), therefore leaving balance of power in the hands of several smaller parties and individual politicians.
According to the latest Newshub-Reid Research poll, National Party even with its current dominant lead over opposition will still secure 61 seats in parliament, one short of required majority to form the government.
New Zealand First's Winston Peters has long been projected to have that balance of power in 2017 elections.
Mr Peters has previously, on many occasions, enjoyed the balance of power in the Parliament, notably in 1996 and 2005, extracting much 'control' on important policies in return.
Recently, a newly formed New Zealand People Party (NZPP) for ethnic migrants has sought to claim this elusive balance of power in New Zealand politics, although, it appears a distant dream so far.
Clearly, incentives are galore for political engagement in this country, as every vote counts (especially party votes) and balance of power could be the precious prize.
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