Has ACT peaked –or will its graph go higher?
The latest 1News Colmar Brunton polls have prompted commentators and political observers to speculate whether the ACT Party’s rise has plateaued.
The party, which owed its relevance on NZ’s political firmament in recent years solely because of riding on fellow right-of-centre party National’s coat tails, has grown spectacularly in stature under the leadership of David Seymour, garnering 10 MPs in the 2020 election up from just a solitary seat in 2017.
But is its meteoric rise losing steam?
It isn’t rare for a minor party that’s rising in the polls at a quick pace to hit a plateau or even see a quick exodus of supporters to other major political parties – keeping them under the psychological barrier of 10 percent numbers.
It may be tempting for the more conservative and cautious among political commentators to brush aside ACT’s rise in the recent past as an aberration, and not as a refreshingly new trend that could possibly witness a massive rebalancing in NZ politics in the near future.
In the absence of much external approval from commentators, David Seymour, the leader of the Party, who has been the one-man-face of the Party for a long time, backs himself resoundingly and unequivocally.
He told the Indian Weekender in a recent interview that he envisages ACT to become a serious balancer of NZ politics where people who want to make money, look after themselves – and people around them – and take responsibility for their lives actually have a voice and don’t get ignored as a fringe of National.
This bold optimism is tempered with a realistic assessment of the numbers – as Seymour said, “If you look at the last year then there were few periods where we have gone flat and then we have risen … It’s certainly true that our poll is about the same for the last two months .. between 14 and 17 percent. But those are record levels, we have never been so high. We stopped around 10 percent about six months ago and then we went up and then we flattened. I think we will go up again.”
In recent years, both National and Labour have been voted to power more as a result of fatigue of incumbency than actually on some robust new ideas and direction for NZ. As a consequence, there has been a natural tendency to cling to the status-quo on every aspect of policymaking – housing, healthcare, immigration, infrastructure, economy.
Labour continues to visualise the world as a divide between the haves and the have nots, which is being so inaccurately played out in NZ as the divide between businesses and workers.
Similarly, National seems to be too lost in trying to be the party of a coalition between rural-conservatives and urban-liberals. In recent years, National has held on to power, more around the centrist and free trading outlook of the world.
Indeed, both major parties had neither anything radically new to offer, or have any common sense solutions (minus the jargon) to the problems facing the voters of NZ.
It is this “common sense” politics that ACT’s David Seymour has lately started displaying and more importantly, communicating effectively that is catching the attention of NZ voters.
It is not insignificant that the dramatic rise of the ACT from an abysmally low 0.5 percent votes in 2017 to a record 7.6 percent in 2020 has happened in the wake of Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s meteorically rising popularity.
Much credit goes to the ease with which David Seymour has been able to position his party’s stance on some of the most pressing challenges facing our country in recent times without being a prisoner to ideology.
He has rebranded ACT’s image from appearing as a party of the affluent to a party that is open and warm to all Kiwis including migrants. Clearly, David Seymour’s ACT is appearing to be different than the party under many previous leaders like Don Brash.
Seymour is making the most of National’s woes, but clearly has also gained a new support base, from almost every section of NZ society, especially from voters who are largely centrist.
It may be too early to say how far the current surge in ACT’s number will go and how long it will last. Still, it would indeed be exciting if it continues to grow for some more time till it either completely rebalances or at least shakes up the other main political parties within NZ’s political landscape.
The latest 1News Colmar Brunton polls have prompted commentators and political observers to speculate whether the ACT Party’s rise has plateaued.
The party, which owed its relevance on NZ’s political firmament in recent years solely because of riding on fellow right-of-centre party National’s coat...
The latest 1News Colmar Brunton polls have prompted commentators and political observers to speculate whether the ACT Party’s rise has plateaued.
The party, which owed its relevance on NZ’s political firmament in recent years solely because of riding on fellow right-of-centre party National’s coat tails, has grown spectacularly in stature under the leadership of David Seymour, garnering 10 MPs in the 2020 election up from just a solitary seat in 2017.
But is its meteoric rise losing steam?
It isn’t rare for a minor party that’s rising in the polls at a quick pace to hit a plateau or even see a quick exodus of supporters to other major political parties – keeping them under the psychological barrier of 10 percent numbers.
It may be tempting for the more conservative and cautious among political commentators to brush aside ACT’s rise in the recent past as an aberration, and not as a refreshingly new trend that could possibly witness a massive rebalancing in NZ politics in the near future.
In the absence of much external approval from commentators, David Seymour, the leader of the Party, who has been the one-man-face of the Party for a long time, backs himself resoundingly and unequivocally.
He told the Indian Weekender in a recent interview that he envisages ACT to become a serious balancer of NZ politics where people who want to make money, look after themselves – and people around them – and take responsibility for their lives actually have a voice and don’t get ignored as a fringe of National.
This bold optimism is tempered with a realistic assessment of the numbers – as Seymour said, “If you look at the last year then there were few periods where we have gone flat and then we have risen … It’s certainly true that our poll is about the same for the last two months .. between 14 and 17 percent. But those are record levels, we have never been so high. We stopped around 10 percent about six months ago and then we went up and then we flattened. I think we will go up again.”
In recent years, both National and Labour have been voted to power more as a result of fatigue of incumbency than actually on some robust new ideas and direction for NZ. As a consequence, there has been a natural tendency to cling to the status-quo on every aspect of policymaking – housing, healthcare, immigration, infrastructure, economy.
Labour continues to visualise the world as a divide between the haves and the have nots, which is being so inaccurately played out in NZ as the divide between businesses and workers.
Similarly, National seems to be too lost in trying to be the party of a coalition between rural-conservatives and urban-liberals. In recent years, National has held on to power, more around the centrist and free trading outlook of the world.
Indeed, both major parties had neither anything radically new to offer, or have any common sense solutions (minus the jargon) to the problems facing the voters of NZ.
It is this “common sense” politics that ACT’s David Seymour has lately started displaying and more importantly, communicating effectively that is catching the attention of NZ voters.
It is not insignificant that the dramatic rise of the ACT from an abysmally low 0.5 percent votes in 2017 to a record 7.6 percent in 2020 has happened in the wake of Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s meteorically rising popularity.
Much credit goes to the ease with which David Seymour has been able to position his party’s stance on some of the most pressing challenges facing our country in recent times without being a prisoner to ideology.
He has rebranded ACT’s image from appearing as a party of the affluent to a party that is open and warm to all Kiwis including migrants. Clearly, David Seymour’s ACT is appearing to be different than the party under many previous leaders like Don Brash.
Seymour is making the most of National’s woes, but clearly has also gained a new support base, from almost every section of NZ society, especially from voters who are largely centrist.
It may be too early to say how far the current surge in ACT’s number will go and how long it will last. Still, it would indeed be exciting if it continues to grow for some more time till it either completely rebalances or at least shakes up the other main political parties within NZ’s political landscape.
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