Looking back, looking forward
The seeds of our future are sown from the decisions we take in our past. As we enter the New Year, it is important to look at two crucial decisions in 2015 that will have a crucial impact in 2016 and beyond.
Firstly, the Paris Agreement on climate change is a major step forward to safeguard our planet, to protect vulnerable people suffering from climate change and to ensure there is a viable future for our families and their children. It has been 23 years since the signing of the Climate Change Convention at the Earth Summit in 1992, and at last we have an international agreement.
I was in Paris for the negotiations, contributing to the civil society and public pressure on governments to deliver a strong agreement. It was partially successful. The agreement aims to protect vulnerable people by keeping global temperature rise below 1.5°C (above pre-industrial temperatures). Achieving this aim will require governments, businesses and all of us to change our behaviour. The targets that governments have submitted so far are well above that level, and the five yearly reviews mandated under the Paris Agreement will be crucial.
The Paris Agreement will send a strong signal to those who have not yet been convinced, including investors, local government and policy-makers. Governments from 196 countries agreed an ambitious agreement that will phase out coal, oil and gas, and require huge changes to our cities, our transport, our agricultural systems and our economy.
However, there are problems with the agreement. It allows for international offsets, a loophole pushed by our government Ministers. A similar scheme under the Emissions Trading Scheme resulted in New Zealand businesses spending more than $100 million on fraudulent schemes in Eastern Europe, China and other countries. Our emissions are now forecast almost double 1990 levels by 2030, one of the worst of the OECD countries. By contrast, countries like Switzerland have committed to reductions of 50%.
Another problem is that the Paris Agreement is largely unenforceable. Its 31 pages are largely about plans, rather than the tangible commitments that are needed. This is in stark contrast to the other major agreement negotiated in 2015—the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPPA).
Together with annexes and side letters, it runs to over 6000 pages, and has hundreds of enforceable rules. One of the enforcement mechanisms is Investor-State Dispute Settlement (ISDS) which would allow foreign multinationals to challenge NZ government laws and policies in an international tribunal, and overturn decisions by our courts. A similar mechanism in other treaties has allowed challenges to Germany’s energy policies, Canada’s moratorium on fracking, and oil and gas regulation in a number of countries. There is a real danger that ISDS will be used to stop a future New Zealand government taking action to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions.
It is not too late to stop the TPPA. There are several steps required before it comes into law and there is considerable opposition, including in the United States. It is also not too late to strengthen government policy on climate change. Those are some important challenges for 2016.
The seeds of our future are sown from the decisions we take in our past. As we enter the New Year, it is important to look at two crucial decisions in 2015 that will have a crucial impact in 2016 and beyond.
Firstly, the Paris Agreement on climate change is a major step forward to safeguard our...
The seeds of our future are sown from the decisions we take in our past. As we enter the New Year, it is important to look at two crucial decisions in 2015 that will have a crucial impact in 2016 and beyond.
Firstly, the Paris Agreement on climate change is a major step forward to safeguard our planet, to protect vulnerable people suffering from climate change and to ensure there is a viable future for our families and their children. It has been 23 years since the signing of the Climate Change Convention at the Earth Summit in 1992, and at last we have an international agreement.
I was in Paris for the negotiations, contributing to the civil society and public pressure on governments to deliver a strong agreement. It was partially successful. The agreement aims to protect vulnerable people by keeping global temperature rise below 1.5°C (above pre-industrial temperatures). Achieving this aim will require governments, businesses and all of us to change our behaviour. The targets that governments have submitted so far are well above that level, and the five yearly reviews mandated under the Paris Agreement will be crucial.
The Paris Agreement will send a strong signal to those who have not yet been convinced, including investors, local government and policy-makers. Governments from 196 countries agreed an ambitious agreement that will phase out coal, oil and gas, and require huge changes to our cities, our transport, our agricultural systems and our economy.
However, there are problems with the agreement. It allows for international offsets, a loophole pushed by our government Ministers. A similar scheme under the Emissions Trading Scheme resulted in New Zealand businesses spending more than $100 million on fraudulent schemes in Eastern Europe, China and other countries. Our emissions are now forecast almost double 1990 levels by 2030, one of the worst of the OECD countries. By contrast, countries like Switzerland have committed to reductions of 50%.
Another problem is that the Paris Agreement is largely unenforceable. Its 31 pages are largely about plans, rather than the tangible commitments that are needed. This is in stark contrast to the other major agreement negotiated in 2015—the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPPA).
Together with annexes and side letters, it runs to over 6000 pages, and has hundreds of enforceable rules. One of the enforcement mechanisms is Investor-State Dispute Settlement (ISDS) which would allow foreign multinationals to challenge NZ government laws and policies in an international tribunal, and overturn decisions by our courts. A similar mechanism in other treaties has allowed challenges to Germany’s energy policies, Canada’s moratorium on fracking, and oil and gas regulation in a number of countries. There is a real danger that ISDS will be used to stop a future New Zealand government taking action to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions.
It is not too late to stop the TPPA. There are several steps required before it comes into law and there is considerable opposition, including in the United States. It is also not too late to strengthen government policy on climate change. Those are some important challenges for 2016.
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