Race to 272: Many a slip between the cup and the lip
Narendra Modi, Bhartiya Janta (BJP) Party’s Prime Ministerial candidate and the front runner for the post across opinion polls, has a stern test to pass before he can occupy the chair for one of the world’s most powerful people.
The next prime minister of India will not be made in the streets of India or at the counting booths, not even in the elected Parliament but in the back room mathematics table of negotiators and king maker party leaders.
The growing enlightenment among India and Indians, as a democracy, in the past two decades, about their rights and a sense of liberty (both economic and political) has given leverage to local/regional leaders.
The strength of regional parties in the parliament has increased by manifolds, so much so that the so called national parties cannot think of targeting an absolute majority without a scent of fanatic fervor.
Rajiv Gandhi’s tally of 415 seats in 1984 (the highest tally in Parliamentary elections in India, riding on a sympathy wave after Indira Gandhi’s assassination) is out of the question, Narendra Modi pushing the BJP machinery to aim for 272, the minimum number to get the majority, has been observed has a brave move.
After the voter has raised all the rubble on May 12th and the parties are waiting with baited breath on May 16th, this is what the draft plan will look like, BJP wanting another 60 odd seats to lay claim to forming the government, with its regional allies helping out the in the aftermath, they will close the gap to about 30 seats. But from there on the journey is uphill for Modi and Co.
The Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD), the Shiv Sena, the Biju Janta Dal (BJD), the Telugu Desam Party are all very key to NDA’s plans of staking a real claim at the magic number of 272. He will still fall short if the party doesn’t perform to his expectations in Uttar Pradesh (U.P.) where 80 seats are being contested, and the two make or break states Bihar and Karnataka don’t heed to his appeal. He must seek an alliance with AIADMK chief Jayalalithaa and/or TMC chief Mamata Banerjee to cover ground.
At this juncture though neither seems to be talking in his favour, nor is he likely to get AAP on board who might score a paltry figure but yet become crucial in the aftermath of it all.
If there is a learning from the past general election numbers, it is easy to underline how the regional parties have made the national parties realize their importance. SAD as important as the NCP, TMC as crucial as TDP, a TRS as valuable as a BJD; the political class cannot govern the country using a remote control setup from the centre, the regional diversity of India must be heard and respected. These voices from every part of India are posing a question for our federal structure. Will regional leaders remain kingmakers or will this battle throw up a surprise and make a regional leader the queen bee?
Narendra Modi, Bhartiya Janta (BJP) Party’s Prime Ministerial candidate and the front runner for the post across opinion polls, has a stern test to pass before he can occupy the chair for one of the world’s most powerful people.
The next prime minister of India will not be made in the streets of...
Narendra Modi, Bhartiya Janta (BJP) Party’s Prime Ministerial candidate and the front runner for the post across opinion polls, has a stern test to pass before he can occupy the chair for one of the world’s most powerful people.
The next prime minister of India will not be made in the streets of India or at the counting booths, not even in the elected Parliament but in the back room mathematics table of negotiators and king maker party leaders.
The growing enlightenment among India and Indians, as a democracy, in the past two decades, about their rights and a sense of liberty (both economic and political) has given leverage to local/regional leaders.
The strength of regional parties in the parliament has increased by manifolds, so much so that the so called national parties cannot think of targeting an absolute majority without a scent of fanatic fervor.
Rajiv Gandhi’s tally of 415 seats in 1984 (the highest tally in Parliamentary elections in India, riding on a sympathy wave after Indira Gandhi’s assassination) is out of the question, Narendra Modi pushing the BJP machinery to aim for 272, the minimum number to get the majority, has been observed has a brave move.
After the voter has raised all the rubble on May 12th and the parties are waiting with baited breath on May 16th, this is what the draft plan will look like, BJP wanting another 60 odd seats to lay claim to forming the government, with its regional allies helping out the in the aftermath, they will close the gap to about 30 seats. But from there on the journey is uphill for Modi and Co.
The Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD), the Shiv Sena, the Biju Janta Dal (BJD), the Telugu Desam Party are all very key to NDA’s plans of staking a real claim at the magic number of 272. He will still fall short if the party doesn’t perform to his expectations in Uttar Pradesh (U.P.) where 80 seats are being contested, and the two make or break states Bihar and Karnataka don’t heed to his appeal. He must seek an alliance with AIADMK chief Jayalalithaa and/or TMC chief Mamata Banerjee to cover ground.
At this juncture though neither seems to be talking in his favour, nor is he likely to get AAP on board who might score a paltry figure but yet become crucial in the aftermath of it all.
If there is a learning from the past general election numbers, it is easy to underline how the regional parties have made the national parties realize their importance. SAD as important as the NCP, TMC as crucial as TDP, a TRS as valuable as a BJD; the political class cannot govern the country using a remote control setup from the centre, the regional diversity of India must be heard and respected. These voices from every part of India are posing a question for our federal structure. Will regional leaders remain kingmakers or will this battle throw up a surprise and make a regional leader the queen bee?
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