Opportunists could exploit Pakistan disaster
The United Nations has described Pakistan’s alarming flood situation as one of the worst natural disasters ever. Over 1500 people have lost their lives, many thousands injured, hundreds of thousands displaced and more than 2.5 million people have been affected by the floods.
Unlike natural disasters such as earthquakes, tsunamis, landslides, tornadoes and cyclones that come with a degree of suddenness and speed, floods are slow in coming and the build up before the extent of damage becomes noticeable is considerably long drawn out.
Consequently, the arrival of help – particularly from international humanitarian organisations and foreign governments – is also slow, thereby escalating the severity of the problems.
This is what has happened in Pakistan as well. Though some humanitarian agencies like Oxfam were fast to mobilise help and resources and get to the scene of the watery disaster as it meandered menacingly across the plains of the Indus, bigger aid donors are still struggling to get enough material in time to the growing numbers of displaced people.
The disaster hit the country while its people were observing their holiest month and preparing to celebrate its 63rd independence day, which it shares with India separated by a single day.
The mindboggling scale of the humanitarian disaster, though, did not deter politicians from trying to score brownie points. India’s gesture to donate to the cause of the displaced Pakistani people was initially criticised, though later accepted creating a needless debate especially the highly volatile cyberspace mostly indulged by expatriates far removed from the scene of the disaster.
The inability of people to rise above their socio-politico-religious differences even in the face of the worst humanitarian disaster affecting their own people is highly deplorable.
In fact, this same tendency to capitalise on the misfortune of the millions spells a serious threat to the ever-tenuous semblance of geopolitical balance in what is one of the biggest potential hotspots on the globe.
There is no doubt that there will be extremist forces waiting in the wings to capitalise on the humanitarian situation that seems to be worsening by the day, what with no let up in the weather that is bringing even more rain and flooding, threatening to inundate ever broader swathes of plains away from the path of the river.
It’s a question of time before these extremist forces, which may well be backed by fringe elements from within the country’s armed forces and law-unto-itself intelligence establishment, begin to blame the weak civilian government that is dependent on creaky local infrastructure for failing to deliver aid in a timely and efficient manner and steadily build up disfavour against it. There is every possibility that allegations of corruption and misappropriation involving the government machinery will follow and attempts will be made to snowball this into huge public resentment.
It is entirely in the realm of possibility that at such a juncture these forces will take over the aid distribution process under the pretext of doing a more efficient job through the network of the armed forces, thereby gaining control of both aid goods and the billions of dollars of funds that have begun flowing in and will continue to do so for some time.
At this stage, toppling the civilian government would be a cakewalk. The disastrous situation on the ground being what it is, it will be unthinkable for the international community to stop humanitarian aid and neither will it be able to divert its attention from the task of resettling the affected millions because of such a development.
This could well be the moment the extremist faction in the country backed by fringe elements in the intelligence establishment is looking for.
Simplistic though it may look, this scenario is hardly farfetched and is utterly plausible.
As powerful Western nations and aid agencies busy themselves with disbursing humanitarian supplies around the country, they would do well to keep a steady eye on the behind the scenes developments that could well be unfolding in its perpetually volatile political climate.
It is entirely possible that the US government and the Western coalition are aware of such a possibility and are already dealing with elements within the establishment to prevent it from eventuating.
We do hope that is indeed the case. For a political disaster following a humanitarian tragedy of such unimaginable scale in one of the world’s most volatile nuclear hotspots is in nobody’s interest.
The United Nations has described Pakistan’s alarming flood situation as one of the worst natural disasters ever. Over 1500 people have lost their lives, many thousands injured, hundreds of thousands displaced and more than 2.5 million people have been affected by the floods.
Unlike natural...
The United Nations has described Pakistan’s alarming flood situation as one of the worst natural disasters ever. Over 1500 people have lost their lives, many thousands injured, hundreds of thousands displaced and more than 2.5 million people have been affected by the floods.
Unlike natural disasters such as earthquakes, tsunamis, landslides, tornadoes and cyclones that come with a degree of suddenness and speed, floods are slow in coming and the build up before the extent of damage becomes noticeable is considerably long drawn out.
Consequently, the arrival of help – particularly from international humanitarian organisations and foreign governments – is also slow, thereby escalating the severity of the problems.
This is what has happened in Pakistan as well. Though some humanitarian agencies like Oxfam were fast to mobilise help and resources and get to the scene of the watery disaster as it meandered menacingly across the plains of the Indus, bigger aid donors are still struggling to get enough material in time to the growing numbers of displaced people.
The disaster hit the country while its people were observing their holiest month and preparing to celebrate its 63rd independence day, which it shares with India separated by a single day.
The mindboggling scale of the humanitarian disaster, though, did not deter politicians from trying to score brownie points. India’s gesture to donate to the cause of the displaced Pakistani people was initially criticised, though later accepted creating a needless debate especially the highly volatile cyberspace mostly indulged by expatriates far removed from the scene of the disaster.
The inability of people to rise above their socio-politico-religious differences even in the face of the worst humanitarian disaster affecting their own people is highly deplorable.
In fact, this same tendency to capitalise on the misfortune of the millions spells a serious threat to the ever-tenuous semblance of geopolitical balance in what is one of the biggest potential hotspots on the globe.
There is no doubt that there will be extremist forces waiting in the wings to capitalise on the humanitarian situation that seems to be worsening by the day, what with no let up in the weather that is bringing even more rain and flooding, threatening to inundate ever broader swathes of plains away from the path of the river.
It’s a question of time before these extremist forces, which may well be backed by fringe elements from within the country’s armed forces and law-unto-itself intelligence establishment, begin to blame the weak civilian government that is dependent on creaky local infrastructure for failing to deliver aid in a timely and efficient manner and steadily build up disfavour against it. There is every possibility that allegations of corruption and misappropriation involving the government machinery will follow and attempts will be made to snowball this into huge public resentment.
It is entirely in the realm of possibility that at such a juncture these forces will take over the aid distribution process under the pretext of doing a more efficient job through the network of the armed forces, thereby gaining control of both aid goods and the billions of dollars of funds that have begun flowing in and will continue to do so for some time.
At this stage, toppling the civilian government would be a cakewalk. The disastrous situation on the ground being what it is, it will be unthinkable for the international community to stop humanitarian aid and neither will it be able to divert its attention from the task of resettling the affected millions because of such a development.
This could well be the moment the extremist faction in the country backed by fringe elements in the intelligence establishment is looking for.
Simplistic though it may look, this scenario is hardly farfetched and is utterly plausible.
As powerful Western nations and aid agencies busy themselves with disbursing humanitarian supplies around the country, they would do well to keep a steady eye on the behind the scenes developments that could well be unfolding in its perpetually volatile political climate.
It is entirely possible that the US government and the Western coalition are aware of such a possibility and are already dealing with elements within the establishment to prevent it from eventuating.
We do hope that is indeed the case. For a political disaster following a humanitarian tragedy of such unimaginable scale in one of the world’s most volatile nuclear hotspots is in nobody’s interest.
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