ETS discontent could be Labour’s big break
A couple of issues ago I had written in these pages that National’s popularity was close to the tipping point. It would be too much to expect the dream lead it had amassed over Labour during almost all of its term so far to remain intact forever.
We had identified two major events that could have a swift and direct effect on National’s popularity. One was Budget 2010 – which went without incident last week, much to its glee and the opposition’s understandable dismay despite it having raised so many red flags, a few of them quite convincing.
The second is yet to come. And as we had said, this event, which will begin to unfold in July, has the potential to narrow National’s dream run of a lead over Labour and if it is not careful – and of course if Labour can at all get its act together – it might make the run up to 2011 that much harder for the ruling party.
That event is the contentious emissions trading scheme or ETS. The government has so far refused to change, back down or postpone the politically dangerous journey it has committed the country on.
The government’s plan subjects all of New Zealand’s emissions over the next few years to ETS, something that runs contrary to the plans of almost every other country in the world. Australia has postponed its own scheme, of course amid controversy, but it has at least decided to take on board all concerns including the highly skeptical fringe among its heavy industries and mining sector.
The New Zealand government though has so far brushed all concerns aside on the premise of non negotiably sticking to Kyoto commitments besides the compulsion to stick to the country’s clean green credentials and breaking forth a leadership path.
If the government thinks it is carving a new path for others to follow, that is unlikely to happen in a hurry. For other nations seem to be taking a far more pragmatic, practical and careful look at the whole business of carbon credits that is based on the increasingly controversial belief of anthropogenic global warming. The world is perfectly happy for New Zealand to strike out a lone path in yet another social laboratory experiment.
Despite loud and shrill warning bells sounded by international events surrounding the Copenhagen fiasco, the leaked University of East Anglia emails and the Himalayan hoax on which the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) built a whole bleak theory that painted a dire scenario for the river plains of northern India, the government has not even as much as stopped to consider.
On the other hand, there have been some media reports that government spin doctors are already planning to convince us all about how good it is for all of us, with the help of a campaign that will be upon us soon.
But even before the euphoria over the tax cuts in the budget had died down, the power companies have announced increases in power and gas tariffs because of the impending ETS. Petrol and diesel will follow suit shortly. In the next two years, almost all manufacturing and industrial activity in the country will come under the purview of the ETS including the vitally important dairy industry.
As well as increasing prices, it will put our manufacturers, exporters and the dairy industry progressively uncompetitive in the international marketplace while also making everything within New Zealand dearer.
The ETS certainly has the potential to put a massive speed breaker in National’s plans to coast toward the next election and cruise past it: if at the same time next year, people begin to feel poorer because of the cumulative effects of the rising costs wrought by the implementation of the ETS and the curtailment of services as is envisaged in the budget, the public mood will be very different toward National that what it is today.
And if in the meantime, Labour can get its act together and put up a credible face and programme forward, rising above its present state of despondency and the lack of a sense of direction and leadership, National’s road will become that much uphill.
How it handles ETS will to a great extent influence the public mood toward National over the next few months.
A couple of issues ago I had written in these pages that National’s popularity was close to the tipping point. It would be too much to expect the dream lead it had amassed over Labour during almost all of its term so far to remain intact forever.
We had identified two major events that could...
A couple of issues ago I had written in these pages that National’s popularity was close to the tipping point. It would be too much to expect the dream lead it had amassed over Labour during almost all of its term so far to remain intact forever.
We had identified two major events that could have a swift and direct effect on National’s popularity. One was Budget 2010 – which went without incident last week, much to its glee and the opposition’s understandable dismay despite it having raised so many red flags, a few of them quite convincing.
The second is yet to come. And as we had said, this event, which will begin to unfold in July, has the potential to narrow National’s dream run of a lead over Labour and if it is not careful – and of course if Labour can at all get its act together – it might make the run up to 2011 that much harder for the ruling party.
That event is the contentious emissions trading scheme or ETS. The government has so far refused to change, back down or postpone the politically dangerous journey it has committed the country on.
The government’s plan subjects all of New Zealand’s emissions over the next few years to ETS, something that runs contrary to the plans of almost every other country in the world. Australia has postponed its own scheme, of course amid controversy, but it has at least decided to take on board all concerns including the highly skeptical fringe among its heavy industries and mining sector.
The New Zealand government though has so far brushed all concerns aside on the premise of non negotiably sticking to Kyoto commitments besides the compulsion to stick to the country’s clean green credentials and breaking forth a leadership path.
If the government thinks it is carving a new path for others to follow, that is unlikely to happen in a hurry. For other nations seem to be taking a far more pragmatic, practical and careful look at the whole business of carbon credits that is based on the increasingly controversial belief of anthropogenic global warming. The world is perfectly happy for New Zealand to strike out a lone path in yet another social laboratory experiment.
Despite loud and shrill warning bells sounded by international events surrounding the Copenhagen fiasco, the leaked University of East Anglia emails and the Himalayan hoax on which the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) built a whole bleak theory that painted a dire scenario for the river plains of northern India, the government has not even as much as stopped to consider.
On the other hand, there have been some media reports that government spin doctors are already planning to convince us all about how good it is for all of us, with the help of a campaign that will be upon us soon.
But even before the euphoria over the tax cuts in the budget had died down, the power companies have announced increases in power and gas tariffs because of the impending ETS. Petrol and diesel will follow suit shortly. In the next two years, almost all manufacturing and industrial activity in the country will come under the purview of the ETS including the vitally important dairy industry.
As well as increasing prices, it will put our manufacturers, exporters and the dairy industry progressively uncompetitive in the international marketplace while also making everything within New Zealand dearer.
The ETS certainly has the potential to put a massive speed breaker in National’s plans to coast toward the next election and cruise past it: if at the same time next year, people begin to feel poorer because of the cumulative effects of the rising costs wrought by the implementation of the ETS and the curtailment of services as is envisaged in the budget, the public mood will be very different toward National that what it is today.
And if in the meantime, Labour can get its act together and put up a credible face and programme forward, rising above its present state of despondency and the lack of a sense of direction and leadership, National’s road will become that much uphill.
How it handles ETS will to a great extent influence the public mood toward National over the next few months.
Leave a Comment