India’s defining elections: A tale of three friends
April 11 2014
The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in its golden days, under Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s leadership had harboured good friendships from North to South. Good friendships, the corner stone of modern day coalition politics. Coalitions which relied on trust between the leading party and its various coalition partners to give a stable government that will last a full term of 5 years.
Reaching a tally of 272 (majority vote in the Lok Sabha or the House of People) is dependent on these bonds of trust. The UPA struggled with their bonds but has managed to scrape through mostly owing to a weak opposition incapable to match the numbers.
Narendra Modi’s (NaMo) push across the country for the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) to target 272 is an indicator how serious they are about the threat of coalition politics.
The key to Modi’s success will be his ability to forge these ties, pre election, so that there are no hiccups in his crowning post May 16th when the final numbers are announced.
However, the reasons for his failure will be a tale of three friends, Omar Abdullah, Nitish Kumar, and B.S. Yeddyurappa. NDA’s loss and BJP being left short of the magic number 272 might owe it to the inclusion of corrupt Yeddyurappa back in its ranks and exclusion of an ambitious Nitish Kumar and a fearful Omar Abdullah from the NDA coalition.
Yeddyurappa, on being sacked as the Chief Minister of Karnataka with pending corruption charges was a brave move from the BJP, allowing them to be perceived on the right side of for the fight against corruption, however briefly. Yeddyurappa revolted and quit the BJP, forming his own party; only to later merge with the parent party again. This friend number one, hailing from the Silicon Valley of India, will cost the BJP dearly. Karnataka a mighty state with contests for 28 constituencies will need a serious eye wash to miss this.
The second and an almost unbreakable friend, Nitish Kumar (Leader, Janata Dal United), of the NDA was torn away by BJP’s hardline of projecting NaMo as the PM candidate last year. Nitish Kumar has had his own run of success at the regional level, as the Chief Minister of Bihar. Nitish has brought about a social revolution of sorts in Bihar, improving the State’s performance on socio-economic fronts from decades of misrule, just like Modi has done for Gujarat. Nitish, definitely reckons himself as one of the contenders for the Prime Ministerial seat, having served as a Union Minister before and having an unblemished repertoire to his credit. Call it Nitish’s ambition, or his unwillingness to lose the so called secular vote bank, or term it as Modi’s authoritarian style to not accommodate a detracting opinion, it is a loss. A very big loss for both the JD(U) and the BJP as they will feel spent contesting for the 40 seats in Bihar without having each others’ support for the first time in over a decade.
The final friend that features on this list, does not bring with him the sway to control tens of seats, a meager 6 seats, that is all that get elected from his State of Jammu and Kashmir, Omar Abdullah, Chief Minister of J&K and Leader of the National Conference. What lends weight to his stature is the importance and position the State of J&K holds in Indian politics. A law and order situation in J&K can become a cause of concern for the Home Ministry, External Affairs, Defence Ministry and the Prime Minister’s Office in no time. With the International media glued to Kashmir as a boiling issue; J&K is a boundary conflict unresolved for decades. The Union government not having a friend at the helm of affairs is disastrous. Under Vajpayee, the National Conference was very much a part of the NDA and Omar even served as a Minister, even though he had close family ties with Rajesh Pilot of the Congress Party. Which is highly unlikely now, and losing this friend is a matter of shame for the NDA, and a dent to their post poll political game plan.
The rise of Modi is stunted by his inability to work as a team player, the man might have the gumption to stand tall against dynasty politics, putting India back on the path of growth, and even returning the country’s glory days; will delivering on duty alone, allow him to sail through? Will he have the trust of his friends? India’s decisive election will be how he is defined in history books too.
The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in its golden days, under Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s leadership had harboured good friendships from North to South. Good friendships, the corner stone of modern day coalition politics. Coalitions which relied on trust between the leading party and its various...
The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in its golden days, under Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s leadership had harboured good friendships from North to South. Good friendships, the corner stone of modern day coalition politics. Coalitions which relied on trust between the leading party and its various coalition partners to give a stable government that will last a full term of 5 years.
Reaching a tally of 272 (majority vote in the Lok Sabha or the House of People) is dependent on these bonds of trust. The UPA struggled with their bonds but has managed to scrape through mostly owing to a weak opposition incapable to match the numbers.
Narendra Modi’s (NaMo) push across the country for the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) to target 272 is an indicator how serious they are about the threat of coalition politics.
The key to Modi’s success will be his ability to forge these ties, pre election, so that there are no hiccups in his crowning post May 16th when the final numbers are announced.
However, the reasons for his failure will be a tale of three friends, Omar Abdullah, Nitish Kumar, and B.S. Yeddyurappa. NDA’s loss and BJP being left short of the magic number 272 might owe it to the inclusion of corrupt Yeddyurappa back in its ranks and exclusion of an ambitious Nitish Kumar and a fearful Omar Abdullah from the NDA coalition.
Yeddyurappa, on being sacked as the Chief Minister of Karnataka with pending corruption charges was a brave move from the BJP, allowing them to be perceived on the right side of for the fight against corruption, however briefly. Yeddyurappa revolted and quit the BJP, forming his own party; only to later merge with the parent party again. This friend number one, hailing from the Silicon Valley of India, will cost the BJP dearly. Karnataka a mighty state with contests for 28 constituencies will need a serious eye wash to miss this.
The second and an almost unbreakable friend, Nitish Kumar (Leader, Janata Dal United), of the NDA was torn away by BJP’s hardline of projecting NaMo as the PM candidate last year. Nitish Kumar has had his own run of success at the regional level, as the Chief Minister of Bihar. Nitish has brought about a social revolution of sorts in Bihar, improving the State’s performance on socio-economic fronts from decades of misrule, just like Modi has done for Gujarat. Nitish, definitely reckons himself as one of the contenders for the Prime Ministerial seat, having served as a Union Minister before and having an unblemished repertoire to his credit. Call it Nitish’s ambition, or his unwillingness to lose the so called secular vote bank, or term it as Modi’s authoritarian style to not accommodate a detracting opinion, it is a loss. A very big loss for both the JD(U) and the BJP as they will feel spent contesting for the 40 seats in Bihar without having each others’ support for the first time in over a decade.
The final friend that features on this list, does not bring with him the sway to control tens of seats, a meager 6 seats, that is all that get elected from his State of Jammu and Kashmir, Omar Abdullah, Chief Minister of J&K and Leader of the National Conference. What lends weight to his stature is the importance and position the State of J&K holds in Indian politics. A law and order situation in J&K can become a cause of concern for the Home Ministry, External Affairs, Defence Ministry and the Prime Minister’s Office in no time. With the International media glued to Kashmir as a boiling issue; J&K is a boundary conflict unresolved for decades. The Union government not having a friend at the helm of affairs is disastrous. Under Vajpayee, the National Conference was very much a part of the NDA and Omar even served as a Minister, even though he had close family ties with Rajesh Pilot of the Congress Party. Which is highly unlikely now, and losing this friend is a matter of shame for the NDA, and a dent to their post poll political game plan.
The rise of Modi is stunted by his inability to work as a team player, the man might have the gumption to stand tall against dynasty politics, putting India back on the path of growth, and even returning the country’s glory days; will delivering on duty alone, allow him to sail through? Will he have the trust of his friends? India’s decisive election will be how he is defined in history books too.
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