Fiji : From Bullet to Ballot?

WHEN Arvind Kumar, the Editor of the Indian Weekender, asked me a few days ago for my views on the “much anticipated” upcoming Fiji General Elections, I had so much to say that he suggested I write a piece for this issue.
And so here it is: more in the form of a Question and Answer session, with the aim of hopefully making you think a bit more deeply about Fiji!
And accept these views as you wish, either with a pinch of salt or a bowl of kava; if anything, I hope, at the least, it will stimulate some discussion.

WILL FIJI REALLY HOLD ELECTIONS?
The first question that comes to mind is whether Fiji will actually have elections this year? After all, hasn't the now Mister Bainimarama made this promise before? (He is no longer Commodore Bainimarama, as of last week, having retired from the military, at least officially). Will he really keep his word this time? And why would his current illegal regime risk losing the absolute unbridled power and unlimited privileges that they now enjoy? What is their incentive, if any, to go to the polls? Is it international pressure? Have they had enough, and have given up? Do they want to freely travel the world without restrictions and sanctions? Do they miss watching “live” the NZ Rugby Sevens and Rugby World Cup, which current sanctions prevent? Do they want to legitimise themselves? Why bother holding elections now, eight years on?
And I have always asked the question, why would Mr Bainimarama and his regime want elections anyway? After all, they are, as it appears, in total control of the country? And they have very little effective opposition? And they claim that most people in Fiji support them and want them to continue to rule? Didn't their own polling show that over 70 per cent of people support Mr Bainimarama? But then isn't there a real risk that they may not win? After all, the old adage goes “you can never predict the outcome of an election”.
Why has Mr Bainimarama give up his command of the military? Will the military now support him? Will the military be independent going forward? Will the newly appointed army Commander respect the outcome of an election? Will the military now want a say in the running of future governments?
What has got into Mr Bainimaram that he is willing to risk losing his position as Prime Minister, and put his trust in the unpredictable people of Fiji? What if he has miscalculated, and loses the elections? What if some other party wins and they undo what he has done (reverse his new Constitution, cancel his Decrees, and not honour his Immunity laws)? Why would he take this gamble and risk being tried for treason? But then again, is he really at risk, or does he have a backup plan up his sleeve?
Or is the plan that if he loses, the military will ignore the results and continue to rule Fiji? Or is Mr Bainimarama just bluffing once more? Is this a cunning ploy to flush out any remaining people who are publicly opposing him, so that he can once and for all put them behind bars?
Maybe he has acquired the “Sadam Hussein - Muammar Gaddaffi complex”, where he now truly believes that his people love him and will never betray him? Or is he that confident that he and his possible soon-to-be-announced party will win? Or has he received really bad advice on his chances of winning? Or maybe he will at the last minute not hold elections? Or has he finally "lost the plot"? Or has he finally seen the light and wants democracy now? Who knows? So many questions remain to be answered.

I often ask, if I was Mr Bainimarama, and was in his position of absolute power and control, what would I do? Well, I would definitely not risk losing everything! Especially after being shot at, abused, threatened, ridiculed, nternationally ostracised. Why risk joining Mr George Speight in Naboro Prison?


SO WHO ARE THE CONTESTANTS?
This brings us to the election front-runners :
1. SODELPA Party (the re-badged SDL Party). They won the 2000 and 2006 elections, and were unceremoniously removed by Commodore Bainimarama's military in 2006. They are an ethnic-Fijian party, and were largely seen as racist when in government due to their pandering to the whims of the indigenous ethno-nationalist elements. Are they now reformed and any different? Chances are they will be even more discriminatory, as most of the same pre-2006 people are in the background driving the party. They are the main political victims of the 2006 Bainimarama coup, and will be keen to re-assert their authority, and "re-claim what is rightly theirs". Plus there is a real risk that high on their agenda will be a temptation to take revenge against the current regime and its supporters.
2. The Fiji Labour Party. They won the 1987 and 1999 elections, and were in a coalition government with the SDL in 2006. They are effectively pre-dominantly an ethnic-Indian party. Together with their SDL-partners, they were removed by Commodore Bainimarama in his 2006 coup. But, surprisingly, they were “two-faced”, as straight after this coup, they went into a coalition government with the military, which suggests that they were part of the 2006 coup plotters! After a few years of enjoying power in coalition with Bainimarama's military regime, they eventually fell out with the military, and were sacked. They then turned full-circle, and went back to the party that they back-stabbed, the SDL. They are now in an (unholy) alliance with SODELPA (nee SDL). It appears, like their former and now again current partners, the Fiji Labour Party is more interested in removing Mr Bainimarama than working for the good of Fiji.
3. The National Federation Party. They are an ethnic-Indian party. They won the 1987 elections together with the Fiji Labour Party, as a coalition. Soon after the 1987 coup which removed them from government, they fell out with the Fiji Labour Party, and went on their own into the next few elections. In the 2006 election, they did not win a single seat! They also appear to be complimenting and supporting SODELPA. It looks like this saying is true: “An enemy of my enemy, is my friend.”
4. The soon-to-be announced Bainimarama-Military party. Well, this will, if it eventuates, be the current illegal military-backed regime, looking to legitimise itself through the ballot box. Surprisingly, Mr Bainimarama still has no party at this stage. Maybe he is leaving this to the last minute to build up the excitement for his self-predicted massive fan club?
5. Independents. There are a number of independent candidates who have put their hand up, and are a breath of fresh air, but possibly will have difficulty breaking the party-hooked Fiji voters. Ms Roshika Deo is deserving of votes.
Confused? I don't blame people for saying that the situation in Fiji is complicated! Yes - it is complex, but not because of the issues, but because of the leadership, or lack of good ones; what with political leaders changing bed-fellows almost as regularly as they change their underpants! What hope is there for Fiji politics, balanced elections, and true democracy?

Either way, I feel sorry for the people of Fiji - what a line-up to choose from! Are these really the main choices they have? So what was the point of Commodore Bainimarama's “clean-up campaign”? Nearly eight years on, not much has changed politically? Same players and the same game? Who would blame the people of Fiji if they did not vote (again)? And little wonder voter-turnout in the last election was only 55 per cent.


HOW WILL VOTING TAKE PLACE?
According to my friend the Attorney-General and Minister Responsible for Elections, Mr Aiyaz Sayed-Khaiyum: “Fiji will use a multi-member open list system of proportional representation, under which each voter has one vote, with each vote being of equal value, in a single national electoral roll comprising all the registered voters.” I am not sure how many of the sophisticated Fiji populace will understand Aiyaz's “lawyer-talk”? Did you? I didn't!
And it appears the proposed new Fiji electoral system allows for a 50-seat single Parliament, but now with a single national constituency? What does this mean? Will there be no areas or constituencies? So there will be a single voting paper? If, say, 500 people stand for elections, will all 500 will be on the one single voting paper? And voters will have to go through pages and pages of names and choose 50 out of 500? Could the Fiji people really manage that? I would lose count and concentration most probably on page 3 and give up!
And then depending on the percentage of votes received, each party will be allocated seats? So, say, if a party wins 50 per cent of the votes, they get 50 per cent of the seats? Even if, say, their candidates got 75 per cent of the highest number of votes? Or are some seats going to be allocated some other way? Or will it be proportional representation similar to New Zealand and our list MP's? I don't think even the Fiji regime has worked this out yet?!
Plus what was the problem with the old Communal system of voting anyway? Was it really that bad? The old Communal voting system twice provided victory for the Fiji Labour Party. Was it bad then? Or was it only bad because the Labour Party could not win again?
After all, was there not wide-spread democratic consultancy and almost universal acceptance of the Reeves Report and the 1997 Fiji Constitution? Why did Mr Bainimarama have to throw this real “people's” Constitution out? And wasn't Communal voting designed to protect minorities so that they can have at least some representation? Now under the new system, will Rotumans and Part-Europeans have any chance of winning a single seat?
And aren't ethnic-Indians (or Indo-Fijians or what ever you want to call them?) now also a minority? Estimated populations of ethnic-Indians in Fiji is 35 per cent, and ethnic-Fijians 60 per cent. Who will represent them? Will they ever have a real say anymore?
Recently, a close family-friend of mine and a past Fiji political leader said this to me when discussing ethnic-Indians in Fiji, and their perceived embracing of the recent changes of one person one-vote, and the removal of the communal system of voting: "Indo Fijians should be careful what they wish for. Beware "the tyranny of the majority"?". And so to all readers - I urge you to look this term up on the internet or in a library - because this is part of my prediction for the future of Fiji!

And more questions? It appears there will be only one day of polling, instead of the one week of voting as in the past? Will people in rural areas have enough time to travel to voting stations? And voting will apparently be done electronically? So does this mean there will not be any ballot paper, but a computer-based touch-screen system or similar? If so, how accurate will it be? What if the computers don't work or 'crash'? What if the computer link or network does not work properly? How secure and private will voting be? What if an IT-person sitting in the Election Head Office, is able to "fiddle" the results by changing the voting figures? And how can anyone trust or believe the results?

AND WHO WILL WIN THE ELECTIONS?
Or more like, who will lose? At the end of the day, whether elections take place or not, the people of Fiji will be the losers, no matter who wins. My reasoning : it is most probably near impossible to restore the country to its former 'glory', and not going to be easy to pay back the massive amount of loans and debt that has been accumulated by this and previous regimes.
And the people of Fiji will end up with, regardless of who wins, more of the same style and type of continual poor self-indulging leadership that they have become used to. By the way, as I have always maintained, Fiji's biggest curse has been successive poor leadership. Not Coups. Just poor, failed, selfish leaders. Will it really be any different after these elections?
Also, the majority of Fiji people live in rural areas, in villages and settlements. They traditionally have voted “emotionally”, rather than strategically or on logically on issues. And ethnic-Fijians are by-and-large still very traditional and possibly will continue to follow their chiefs’ voting direction.
Mr Bainimarama and his followers and military think he will win. I am not sure if they have included other members of his current non-existent party as potential winners as well because I don't think he will be the only candidate for his party? There must be others? At least another 50 of them? But will they have enough support? He may, but will they?
My pick: Understanding how Fiji people think, and if they again vote as they always have, along ethnic lines, then based on the current demographics, SODELPA will win!
So it will be back to square one, if SODELPA wins? Will Mr Bainimarama and the military accept this result? After all, didn't they carry out the coup in 2006 to remove the SDL (SODELPA) and do a "clean-up" on them? And then will there be another coup to "clean" this up again? And id so, then what was the point of the last eight years? And was all the pain and suffering in vain? What a load of non-sense and a waste of all our time?
But one never knows, as some people tell me that "the people of Fiji have changed, and now they understand the need for racial equality and religious tolerance, and are more politically aware now, and will vote on issues, rather than along racial lines". And I hope they are right, for the sake of Democracy. We shall see!

* Nik Naidu is spokeman for the Coalition for Democracy in Fiji (CDF), an Auckland-based human rights group. The views expressed in this article are his personal views, and not necessarily those of the CDF.