Modi’s Subtle Middle East Stance Speaks Volumes

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was prompt in applauding US President Donald Trump for his Middle East peace plan and successfully brokering a pause in hostilities between Israel and Hamas in Gaza.

But Modi caused a mild diplomatic flutter when he chose not to be part of the line-up of over 20 world leaders who attended the peace summit hosted  jointly by Trump and Egypt’s president Abdel Fattah El-Sisi at the Red Sea resort of Sharm El Sheikh in Egypt early this week.

India was represented by Minister of State for External Affairs Kirti Vardhan Singh instead.

The presence of Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif at the summit became the focal point of some media speculation, as being the probable cause for Modi’s no-show at the event. 

Was it a diplomatic fallout of Trump’s 50 per cent tariff hike on Indian goods entering the US, seen as a penalty for continuing to purchase proscribed oil from Russia?

But frosty India-US relations over levies did not inhibit Modi from congratulating Trump on the success of the Gaza ceasefire.

However, by declining Trump’s invitation to attend the Egypt summit, along with other world leaders, and sending a proxy instead, Modi may be seen to be exacting a diplomatic price for Trump’s heavy-handedness on trade.

But if Modi was less than effusive with Trump, that was not the case with Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Modi’s post on social media platform X praised the Israeli premier for his “strong leadership” and push for peace in the Middle East.

This should come as no surprise given the burgeoning trade between the two nations.

India and Israel inked a bilateral investment deal during Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich’s visit to India recently.

Smotrich and Indian Minister of Corporate Affairs Nirmala Sitaraman pledged to boost trade and investment between the two countries and step up collaboration in the areas of cyber-security and defence.

That Israel is the largest weapons supplier to New Delhi may also have played into Modi’s decision to keep away from the Sharm El Sheikh peace meet, a decision that aligned with Netanyahu’s, who also did not attend.

But Israeli sensitivities are not the sole driver for New Delhi’s seemingly tepid endorsement of Trump’s Middle East peace plan. It’s fair to surmise that it also stems from a realistic assessment of the prospects of achieving a lasting peace in the war-torn enclave, now reduced to rubble accompanied by a staggering civilian death toll close to 70,000, and with no signs of a viable governance structure in the offing.

Hamas fighters have already filled the security vacuum left behind by the partial withdrawal of Israeli troops. Having outsourced the running of the Gaza Strip to Trump in the aftermath of the US peace initiative, Israel is watching askance from its newly drawn border as Hamas vies for control and dominance over rival groups. This internecine strife has led to bloodletting within Gaza that is no longer accountable to the Israel Defence Force (IDF) during its two-year military operation triggered by the Hamas attack on Israel on 7 October 2023. 

India is a votary of the two-state solution to end the Israel-Palestine conflict, though foreign policy hawks may point to New Delhi’s ambivalence on Israel’s transgressions of Palestinian rights. India has consistently abstained from resolutions passed by the United Nations critical of Israel.

In 2024, India abstained from a UN General Assembly vote calling for a lasting ceasefire in Gaza.

Tellingly, New Delhi has shifted its position since and is now in lock-step with the international community in welcoming efforts to “ pave the way for lasting peace.”

Venu Menon is a senior journalist based in Wellington. He was Consulting Editor of The Hindu in India prior to moving to New Zealand