Kiwis planning overseas holidays this summer will have more flights and routes to choose from, but rising airline operating costs mean cheaper airfares are far from guaranteed.
According to a report by Stuff, New Zealand’s major airports are preparing for a significant increase in international capacity. Auckland Airport is expecting nearly six million international seats this summer, up 5% on the previous year, while Christchurch Airport is preparing for its biggest international summer season yet, with more than 1.27 million seats, an increase of 21%.
The additional capacity is expected to give travellers greater flexibility, more departure dates and better seat availability during busy holiday periods. However, industry experts warn that the increase in flights may not translate into lower prices across all routes, as reported by Stuff.
Stats NZ data shows international airfares rose 21.5% in the year to August 31, marking the largest annual increase since April 2023.
Even when extra capacity creates discounted fares or special offers, travellers may simply be finding the cheapest option in an otherwise expensive market, Stuff has reported.
Airfares remain under pressure
Aviation analytics firm Cirium found that average one-way economy fares from Auckland between January and July 2026 were 14% higher to Singapore, 10.1% higher to Los Angeles and 8.1% higher to Dubai than during the same period in 2025.
However, prices fluctuated throughout the period. Fares to Singapore reached US$1363 (NZ$2425) in January, while Los Angeles fares peaked at US$1100 (NZ$1961) in April. By July, fares on all three routes had fallen below their levels a year earlier, as reported by Stuff.
House of Travel chief executive David Coombes said increased airline capacity had traditionally helped put downward pressure on fares, but airlines were now facing a different cost environment.
“Long-haul flying is expensive and fuel heavy. Fuel costs, airport charges and operating costs have all been climbing for airlines year-on-year, and long-haul tickets are the fare most exposed to those increases,” he says, Stuff has quoted.
Coombes cautioned against drawing broad conclusions from individual routes, pointing to changing travel patterns and disruptions affecting Middle Eastern transit hubs earlier in the year.
“Our data shows that on a route like Singapore, more customers are travelling this year compared with 2025, but it's not an apples-to-apples comparison. Some of that increase will reflect the conflict disruption affecting Middle East transit hubs earlier in the year, which saw travellers moved or booking on alternative routes through destinations like Singapore,” as quoted by Stuff.
Higher fuel prices have added to the pressure, with jet fuel costing roughly 70% more than the 2025 average.
“More capacity is giving travellers more choice and creating more opportunities to find value but we don't expect fares to return to previous levels in the short-to-medium term,” Coombes says, Stuff has quoted.
Flight Centre general manager Heidi Walker also warned against expecting fares to fall significantly in the coming months.
“Airfares right now are pretty good, and the idea of them becoming cheaper in the next few months would be unlikely,” she says.
“We actually have some fairly good airfares considering the environment that is out there right now,” as quoted by Stuff.
Walker said current fares reflected pricing established before recent cost increases and warned prices could rise by a further 7% to 8% when airlines reassessed their cost structures.
China routes see the biggest increase
Routes connecting Auckland with mainland China are receiving the largest boost in capacity.
Between November 2026 and March 2027, airlines are expected to add 48,000 seats between mainland China and Auckland, increasing capacity by 9% compared with last summer, Stuff has reported.
This will bring total capacity on China routes to a record 614,000 seats, with up to 65 return flights a week during the busiest period.
Air New Zealand is adding more than 7000 seats between Shanghai and Auckland over the Chinese New Year period, from January 23 to February 20, 2027, with up to 10 flights a week, Stuff has reported.
China Eastern Airlines will also increase its Shanghai-Auckland-Buenos Aires service from two to four flights a week from December, providing additional connections for New Zealanders travelling to South America.
Six airlines now connect Auckland with seven destinations across mainland China, making Asia a potential area for travellers seeking better value despite high international fares overall.
Air New Zealand chief commercial officer Scott Wilkinson said the airline was carefully considering where to add flights, noting that “Shanghai at this time of year is a fantastic opportunity”, as quoted by Stuff.
Planning ahead for Europe
For New Zealanders planning a European summer holiday next year, booking early remains one of the best ways to secure preferred flights and potentially lower fares.
“Any time that you book relatively short notice, you lose your ability to get the best availability on the flight,” Walker says, Stuff has quoted.
She recommends booking major travel arrangements in advance, including tours and cruises, and considering alternative airports to reduce costs.
“We often recommend to consumers who are trying to really make the dollar stretch as far as possible, to fly into London and then fly out of a different airport, because the London departure tax is actually quite a lot,” as quoted by Stuff.
Easing travel advisories for Middle Eastern transit hubs Qatar and the United Arab Emirates to Level 2, or “Exercise Increased Caution”, also provides travellers with more potential routes to Europe, Stuff has reported.
With more flights becoming available but operating costs continuing to push prices up, experts say Kiwis will need to plan ahead, compare routes and remain flexible to make the most of this summer’s travel options, Stuff has reported.
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