The Opportunity Party has crossed the 5% threshold for the first time in a 1News Verian poll, gaining three points to reach 8%, while NZ First dropped by the same margin to 8%.
According to a report by 1News, the poll, conducted between August 8 and 11, suggests Opportunity could play a key role in determining the next government, with neither of the traditional blocs able to secure a majority on the projected numbers.
Labour remained the largest party at 30%, although its support fell two points. National was unchanged at 29%. The Greens slipped one point to 12%, while ACT climbed three points to 9%. Te Pāti Māori fell one point to 1%, 1News has reported.
At 8%, Opportunity would win nine seats and enter Parliament for the first time. The party, led by Qiulae Wong, has contested elections since 2017 but has never crossed the 5% threshold or won an electorate seat.
NZ First's decline came amid a difficult period for leader Winston Peters, whose preferred prime minister rating also fell three points to 7%. Peters has faced criticism over remarks directed at Green MP Lawrence Xu-Nan, including telling him to "go back to your own country," as quoted by 1News.
The comments were condemned by political opponents and some National figures and prompted a diplomatic protest from China.
Opportunity could hold balance of power
Based on the poll's results, Labour would have 38 seats, National 36, the Greens 15, ACT 11, NZ First 10 and Opportunity nine.
The remaining six seats are allocated to other Māori electorate incumbents under the poll's methodology, 1News has reported.
Neither Labour's traditional grouping nor the National-ACT-NZ First bloc would have enough seats to form a majority independently.
A Labour-Green-Opportunity grouping would have 62 seats, one short of the 63 needed for a majority. Adding Opportunity to the National-ACT-NZ First grouping, however, would give that bloc 66 seats, 1News has reported.
The coalition possibilities have also narrowed after Labour leader Chris Hipkins ruled out working with NZ First, while Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has appeared to rule out National working with Opportunity, as reported by 1News.
That leaves Opportunity potentially in a pivotal position if the poll's numbers were replicated at the election.
Luxon and Hipkins remain ahead in preferred PM ratings
According to 1News, National leader Christopher Luxon fell one point to 17% as preferred prime minister, while Labour leader Chris Hipkins dropped one point to 15%.
Green co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick remained on 6%, while ACT leader David Seymour rose one point to 5%.
National's Erica Stanford and Labour's Kieran McAnulty each recorded 2%, 1News has reported.
The number of voters who were unsure about their preferred prime minister increased to 36%, its highest level in a year. Meanwhile, 11% either did not know or declined to reveal which party they would vote for, as reported by 1News.
The poll surveyed 847 voters and has a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.
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