Covid-19 deaths are climbing once more as New Zealand moves into what experts describe as a ninth wave of the virus, with health authorities pointing to rising hospitalisations and wastewater data as key warning signs.
Michael Baker, professor of public health at the University of Otago, told Stuff there had been 184 hospitalisations and 19 deaths in the past week alone, Stuff has reported.
COVID-19 was probably the country’s most impactful infectious disease in recent years, causing between 500 and 1000 deaths annually, compared with influenza, which is estimated to cause around 500 deaths a year, Baker said. “It’s still a serious disease with a big impact. It's probably our most consequential infectious disease still in New Zealand,” as quoted by Stuff.
Baker said two primary data sources were signalling a fresh surge: wastewater monitoring and hospital admissions. According to wastewater analysis from PHF Science (formerly ESR), Covid-19 case numbers are at their highest level in more than six months.
New Zealand is now in its fifth year of Covid-19 circulation, following an elimination strategy that resulted in virtually no infections during 2020 and 2021, Baker said. “When we see a rise in cases, we look to see if there's a new sub-variant that's driving it. It’s a variant that has evolved to be better at infecting us, better at getting past our immunity.
“We're not seeing that at the moment. That's suggesting the most likely driver of this wave is actually what we call waning immunity,” as reported by Stuff.
Baker said a drop-off in booster uptake, combined with several months without a significant wave, had likely reduced population immunity.
He expects the current wave to last another month or two and says vaccination remains the most effective protection. “If you're in a more vulnerable group, so older New Zealanders and those with underlying morbidity, chronic illnesses, you certainly should get a booster every six months to top up your protection.
“The other benefit is you don't want to get recurrent infections, because it increases your risk of long Covid, and the vaccine does protect you from that, not fully, but partially, Stuff has reported.
“So this is really a strong message that all New Zealanders who are eligible should go and get a booster at this stage,” Baker says.
There are anecdotal reports that cases rose following the Electric Avenue in Christchurch, where around 90,000 people gathered in Hagley Park over two days last weekend. Baker says major events can still contribute to the spread of the virus, even when held outdoors.
“At a festival itself we wouldn't necessarily see much more transmission because most people are outdoors, but of course things associated with a festival, like bars and indoor environments after the event, shared transport and accommodation - that's where a virus spreads well,” Stuff has quoted.
It has now been six years since the country’s first Covid wave and subsequent lockdowns. The final report from the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Covid-19 and New Zealand’s pandemic response is due next week.
Its findings are expected to play a key role in shaping future public health planning as the virus continues to circulate at significant levels, according to a report by Stuff.
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