The by-elections in New Zealand parliament are unusual for a variety of reasons.
Since there is no party vote and only candidate vote, candidate personalities assume far greater significance compared to the general elections.
Moreover, as the average voter turnout is comparatively low than in the general election, any marginal swing in the voter turnout can result in dramatic results.
For this reason, it is often not helpful to compare past trends and results of by-elections with any general elections.
Like every other election, there are supposed to be some trends and possibly some myths that need to be unveiled and debunked.
The Mt Roskill by-election has been necessitated by Phil Goff's elevation as the Mayor of Auckland and is widely considered a safe seat for the Labour Party.
As the date for voting in the Mt Roskill by-election approaches, there is a need to revisit some of the key trends associated with by-elections in New Zealand.
Prime Minister John Key inaugurated National Party's campaign earlier this month at Mt Roskill with an understatement that "no previous government has been successful in winning a seat in a by-election, which it had not held previously."
Initially, it appeared a novel strategy on the part of the Prime Minister to mitigate any pressure on his Party in the build up to the by-election.
Now it seems that it is a repeated strategy by the Prime Minister to play a mind game on a seat where National had been traditionally weak.
Previously, in the 2013 Christchurch East by-elections, which has been a strong Labour seat for the past 100 years, the Prime Minister had sought to campaign through similar understatement.
Evidently, he is taking another shot on this understatement strategy in the Mt Roskill by-elections.
On a different note, some commentators and enthusiastic supporters of the National Party rate highly about the lead in votes by around 2000 over the Labour Party in the 2014 general elections.
For them, the news of Winston Peters’ defeating the nearest National candidate from Northland, a seat considered to be safe for the party in the last by-elections in 2015, would be unsettling.
The Northland electorate had completely reversed their mandate for National within six months of the previous general elections.
So the lead in the most recent general election may not be an appropriate measure of chance in this by-election.
In fact, another apparent reason for the Prime Minister's understatement strategy in this by-election may be rooted in his less-than-impressive track record in leading the National Party in the by-elections.
Although the Prime Minister has led the National to three successive terms in the parliament, his success rate in winning by-elections for the party has been less than satisfactory.
Among the seven by-elections held so far under his leadership—Northland (2015), Christchurch East (2013), Ikaroa-Rawhiti (2013) Te Tai Tokerau (2011), Botany (2011), Mana (2010), and Mt Albert (2009)—the Prime Minister has not been able to win a single seat traditionally held by any other party. On the contrary, he has lost Northland, traditionally considered a safe seat for his party.
National only managed to retain Botany, which has been traditionally considered to be safe for the party.
To add to this, the trends of advance voting in the by-elections may be little worrisome for them.
The advance voting in the last two by-elections—Northland (2015) and Christchurch East (2013)—reflects an innocuous but a notable trend, where advance voting in both instances was more than the previous general elections, and coincidentally, the outcome of both by-elections was against the National Party.
In 2013, the Electoral Commission said that 3,241 people made advance votes—the most ever issued for a by-election.
Similarly, in 2015 in Northland, 13,000 eligible voters voted in advance—that is nearly 29% of the roll and a rise of 40% on advance voting in the electorate in last year's general election.
Does a strong advance voting imply a firm negative for the National Party in any sense?
Maybe it is too early to consider it as a quantifiable electoral trend.
For now, since the advance voting for Mt Roskill by-election began on November 21, early indications of the first four days suggest a spike in the advance voting in comparison to the last general elections.
Before Labour immediately jumps to any conclusion about the Mt Roskill by-elections, it will be appropriate to have a different perspective, which could be the critical factor determining the outcome.
Of all the by-elections discussed above, the candidates crossing the line by far had a strong personality in comparison to their nearest rival and had run an energetic campaign at the ground level.
Mr Peters’ victory from nowhere in a traditional National seat is the greatest epitome of this fact.
Similarly, Labour candidates such as David Shearer, Meka Whaitiri, Poto Williams, and Kris Faafoi were far stronger personalities among their rivals.
How far the Labour Party qualifies in this metric in the Mt Roskill by-election remains to be seen.
Does Labour candidate Michael Wood have a personality strong enough to play the dynamics associated with any by-election?