Labour’s win at the Mount Albert by-election was wholly expected and Labour’s David Shearer has registered a thumping win over nearest rival Melissa Lee of the National Party by a majority of 9187 votes.
Having garnered 63 per cent of the electorate vote, Labour improved its catch over the 2008 election by more than 4 per cent while National lost ground by nearly 12 per cent. The contest at the last election was between former Prime Minister Helen Clark and Ravi Musuku.
As well as being a Labour stronghold ever since the formation of the electorate, the lead up to this by-election was loaded against National for a number of reasons: the hugely unpopular super city development and the controversial changes in the Waterview connection of the SH20 motorway extension were the two biggest factors.
Added to that, candidate Melissa Lee’s series of gaffes all along the campaign trail and the fact that a significant section of Indian voters did not take kindly to the sidelining of two-time National candidate Ravi Musuku did not help National’s cause.
As reflected by the roughly 50 per cent turnout (as against nearly 80 per cent in 2008), it is possible that a significant number of National supporters did not turn up to vote because they had long realised it was a lost cause and, in a sense, simply conceded defeat even before the actual event, quite similar to the manner in which Lee is reported to have said she was fighting for the second position.
Contrary to what the Labour party would like to believe, this result in no way can be seen to reflect the national mood or as a thumbs down to the John Key government.
But at the same time the National leadership cannot gloss over this poor showing and accept it passively as a fait accompli. It must see the straws in the wind when it comes to how Auckland’s ethnic communities perceive the way it handles local issues, especially those that directly affect communities.
Its handling of the super city development and the highway extension route will play an important role in shaping the opinion of all communities – not just the ethnic ones – over the coming months. And it is this that will determine its success in 2011 as much as its stewardship of the country through the present economic crisis.