Close to half time in the present electoral term, the National Party’s popularity still leads Labour’s by some 20 per cent despite the difficult economic times New Zealand has been going through. Prime Minister John Key is regarded as the most popular prime minister ever.
That’s the sort of popularity political parties anywhere would die for anywhere in the world, especially toward the middle of an electoral term. For normally, when things get tough in the economy, the natural tendency of the masses is to blame it all on the government.
But the electorate is proverbially fickle and it does not take much for the tables to turn in the popularity stakes, though National can rest assured at least for the moment because of the huge lead it has on Labour right now.
However, a couple of false moves on National’s part, particularly at this stage, could well see that gap narrow and once that happens, it will be a mammoth task for it to regain the kind of dream lead it has been enjoying since it was swept to power in 2008.
Life is all about perception and politics is even more so. That indeed is the reason why popularity waxes and wanes so rapidly and seems so fickle. Instances of a false move, however well intentioned, sending a well-regarded leader’s popularity into a tailspin are legion. And it usually happens when the leader in question has had a long run as a favourite.
Call it a tipping point. The National Party and its leader seem to be approaching their potential tipping point shortly. Their handling of two developments in the near future will determine whether will they will keep their lead of popularity intact or if their gap with the opposition’s will narrow.
The first is next month’s budget. The increase in GST and the reduction in personal tax rates has the potential to reinforce the perception that it favours the well off and puts people at the lower end of the wage scale at a disadvantage. This could well snowball into a negative wave and certainly take away the support of fence sitters at the lower end of the wage scale.
The effect of the move, though, might be softened by the widespread awareness of the difficult time the country – and the world – has been in economically and the fact that the present government inherited all but empty coffers from the previous regime. So, the tax moves in the budget might not prove to be too much of a tipping point.
But what is certain to be a tipping point is National’s and the prime minister’s increasingly stubborn stand on going ahead with the Emission Trading Scheme provisions which kick in on July 1.
That is a move that has been universally criticised. Every country that embarked on that route has either shelved or certainly delayed their carbon emission trading schemes – including Australia, whose every move is otherwise carefully watched and often adopted by this country.
The science behind emission trading schemes is faulty and has been proved to be so. Every country is backing out but New Zealand under National wants to be a leader and take a step into a space that may well be a dark abyss. All the developed countries in the world that have suspended their own schemes aren’t the babes in the wood New Zealand appears to be.
In a case of classic political turncoat-ism, Environment Minister Nick Smith, who was so vocally critical about the scheme when National was in the opposition, is now its most vocal votary.
Business, National’s biggest support bank, is vehemently opposed and made a number of protests. Working people simply won’t be happy – who would be to pay extra taxes on the basis of unproven science?
National’s belligerence on ETS could very well be the tipping point that the opposition has been waiting for all these months.
Anthropogenic causes of global warming are proving to be more a matter of faith, than based on solid science.
Which brings us to another matter of faith, which I wrote about in this column in the last issue. Our stand on not accepting ads that promise magical remedies has attracted wide response from media organisations and academics on both sides of the Tasman.
Some have hailed it as an example in self-regulation and have invited us for further discussions on how this could be meaningfully applied a guideline for media outlets without the need for any special legislation as in the case of the Indian Drugs and Magic Remedies Act.
While we are humbled by all that response, as much as we are by the messages and good wishes we have received from readers, advertisers and associates as we completed one year of publication. Thank you, all.