Billed as one of the largest defence deals ever globally, India’s planned purchase of 126 medium multi-role combat aircraft (MMRCA) has entered the final phase of its selection procedure.
The process had begun in 2005, with the Indian Air Force (IAF) issuing a request for information (RFI) for new jetfighters to replace the vintage Soviet-era MiG-21s that had been its mainstay since their induction in the early ‘80s. The present estimate of $10.4 billion is likely to escalate as the full scope of the warplane and its attendant services becomes clearer.
The IAF is already hamstrung by a depleting fleet, having just 31 squadrons of serviceable aircraft that fall far short of its targeted 39. Bordering both Pakistan and China, India requires to build up its defences accordingly, to thwart a two-front assault if need be in the worst case scenario. Having embarked upon a military modernisation programme, this country of 1.2 billion is expected to spend more than $35 billion over the next five years on defence acquisitions.
India’s blossoming ties with the United States – formalised with the March 2006 signing of the bilateral civil nuclear cooperation agreement - brought in American firms Lockheed Martin, with its F-16IN Super Viper, and Boeing Integrated Defence Systems, with its F/A-18 E/F Super Hornet, in response to the request for proposal (RFP) floated by the IAF in August 2007.
The other four contenders were France’s Dassault Aviation, with its offering of Rafale, Swedish aerospace company Saab’s JAS-39 Gripen, European consortium Eurofighter GmbH’s Typhoon and the Russian Mikoyan-Gurevich Corporation’s MiG-35.
Recently, India’s Ministry of Defence (MoD), however, shortlisted – or “down selected” - the 24.5-tonne Rafale and the 23.5-tonne Typhoon as finalists for the MMRCA sweepstakes. One of them will ultimately be awarded the contract by September.
Analysts were perplexed by the Defence ministry’s move, as they widely anticipated that the final decision would be a political one rather than one premised on military and security considerations. After all, New Delhi’s earnestness to repay Washington for its nuclear benevolence has already made the US India’s third largest defence supplier, after Russia and Israel. US firms have already won almost $8 billion in defence sales within the last four years, starting with the $50 million transfer to the Indian Navy in June 2007 of the amphibious transport ship, INS Jalashwa, commissioned into the US Navy in 1971 as USS Trenton.
Clouding the situation was American ambassador to India, Timothy Roemer’s, abrupt resignation the very next day after Lockheed and Boeing were eliminated from the competition. He had made an American choice a priority, especially in light of a letter US President Barack Obama had written to Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh that indicated that favouring Lockheed or Boeing would cement the Indo-US strategic partnership and be mutually beneficial in creating thousands of jobs in both the countries.
Pentagon spokesperson, Col. Dave Lapan, affirmed, “We are deeply disappointed by this news, but we look forward to continuing to grow and develop our defence partnership with India.” He was not off the mark. The Indian Parliament’s Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS), at a meeting chaired by the Prime Minister last week, cleared a $4.1 billion deal with Boeing for 10 C-17 Globemaster-III giant strategic airlift aircraft for the IAF. The ultimate deal could be for 16 of them and would top $5.8 billion.
The US itself - with the world’s largest defence budget, of $895 billion, compared to India’s $33 billion - finds these aircraft exorbitant ($200 million each, without spares and training) and has stopped its purchase. The deal with India will, however, save 23,000 American jobs, an aspect noted by Ambassador Roemer himself. Boeing will also be supplying eight P-8I long-range maritime patrol aircraft for the Indian Navy in a $2.1 billion deal signed in January 2009.
Lockheed Martin too has been catered to with a $1.2 billion deal signed in 2008 for six C-130J Super Hercules tactical airlifters. The IAF is now negotiating with Lockheed for six more, alongwith the supply of its Javelin anti-tank missile systems.
A company executive said the MMRCA competition had been a tough one that was executed in a very professional manner by the IAF. “Lockheed Martin… has several world-class products offering the most advanced and reliable technology we believe are suitable for India’s security needs,” he added.
Both Eurofighter and Rafale acquitted themselves well on the 643 technical parameters the IAF had set for judging the six MMRCA contenders. The 211-page RFP document issued to the bidders detailed all requirements, including the initial off-the-shelf purchase of 18 aircraft, with the balance 108 to be manufactured under licence in India.
One view is that the F/A-18E/F and F-16IN were excluded because of Indian concerns about the US’s overly restrictive export policies. New Delhi may have been wary of US Congressional compulsions vetoing India’s deployment of an American frontline fighter in a theatre of conflict.
But one expert attributes the exclusion to their technical shortcomings, saying the F-16’s slow turn rate and low handling performance rendered it less competitive in dogfights against the older F-16 block 50/52s operated by Pakistan. He besides saw the Super Hornet impeded by poor manoeuvrability compared to its European counterparts.
Boeing’s Super Hornet was advantaged by its Active Electronically-Scanned Array (AESA) radar that is vastly superior to conventional mechanically-scanned radars in terms of range, low maintenance, compatibility with the latest generation long range missiles, and simultaneous tracking of both air and ground low-signature targets.
Analysts, however, feel its technology and source codes may have been withheld from India if one goes by such a US denial to its closest ally, the United Kingdom, in the case of the radar of the under development F-35 Lightning II.
Lockheed had earlier offered this single-seat, single-engine, fifth generation multirole fighter to India too. But New Delhi had balked as it has signed a $295 million preliminary design contract (PDC) with Russia for jointly developing a fifth generation fighter aircraft (FGFA).
Russia, in turn, hinged the serial production of its AESA version, Phazotron-NIIR Corporation’s Zhuk-AE that is in production phase, on the outcome of the MMRCA tender where the MiG-35 equipped with the Zhuk-AE is in contention. Apart from its limited range and a perceived similarity to the Tejas, the JAS-39 also has an AESA radar in a developmental status.
Both the Rafale and Typhoon have AESA radars in developmental phases. But Eurofighter GmbH says it, together with Euroradar and their industrial partners, have begun full scale development of a latest generation AESA radar, the target in-service date for which is 2015.
That is the year deliveries of some of the MMRCAs are likely to begin, though the MoD will press for earlier schedules. The deliveries of the 18 off-the-shelf aircraft will last for a couple of years, within which timeframe the Indian licensee – HAL in all probability – would have been readied enough to assume indigenous production. Euroradar is a multinational consortium led by Selex Galileo, a Finmeccanica company.
Dassault has announced that Thales’ production model AESA RBE2 radar has recently been validated on the Rafale, which will commercially be able to fly with it from 2013. The Rafale will then become the only European combat aircraft to benefit from the operational advantages of AESA radar technology, Dassault claims. “The Rafale’s undisputed superiority is recognised around the world and is a key differentiator in today’s highly competitive markets,” says a company statement.
The RFP reflected India’s pursuit of two categories of aircraft, light and medium. But this yielded to one for an en bloc induction, and that too for a medium multi-role fighter. The natural casualties were the third European contestant, the JAS-39 Gripen, whose profile placed it firmly in the lightweight fighter category, as also the other single-engine contestant in the fray, the F-16, which was designed in the early ‘70s and whose source codes have long been with the Pakistan Air Force.
As a bulked-up next-generation version of a twin-engine MiG-29 design and perceived as a rival to the F-16, the Russian MiG-35 fit somewhere in between the light and medium categories. It was also banking on its compatibility with India’s existing MiG-29 fleet. There have also been no problems with Russia on technology transfers and co-production of defence hardware in the past.
Russia did not express any disappointment at the MiG-35’s rejection. It simply cancelled both its navy and army exercises with India scheduled for May and June. After an armada of five Indian warships sailed nearly 5,500 km to Vladivostok to conduct joint naval exercises there, they were informed the manoeuvres would not be taking place.
The reason: the Russians had no ships to spare. While returning, the Indians saw Russian warships steaming out for an exercise of their own. Moscow also called off its joint army exercises that were to be held with the Indian Army in Russia in June.
One reason given was that Russia had not been informed of such exercises in advance. Indian defence sources say such an attitude has been unprecedented in Indo-Russian military ties.
Both the four-nation Eurofighter GmbH and France’s Dassault Aviation have not insisted on any End User Monitoring Agreement (EUMA) as they genuinely regard India as a strategic security partner. France in particular did not join in the US-led sanctions against India following New Delhi’s 1998 nuclear tests. Moreover, unable as it is to sell the Rafale despite aggressive worldwide marketing, France would be willing to transfer related technologies, considering its growing involvement in India’s nuclear and submarine development programmes.
The delta-winged Rafale was commissioned into service with the French Air Force in 2000 and also has a navalised version for the French navy. The Typhoon, also delta-winged, entered service in 2004 and with 707 aircraft under contract by Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK, Austria and Saudi Arabia, is Europe’s largest military collaborative programme.
While analysts believe the Rafale edges ahead owing to the maturity of its across-the-board capabilities, the Typhoon is seen to score in air-to-air combat on account of its excellent thrust to weight ratio. The latter also wins out if the IAF is looking for an ideal protagonist to its Su-30MKI in a two-front conflict with Pakistan and China. But for deep penetration and accurate strike, the Rafale has an advantage.
The final word will be from the Indian Air Force. And it is not talking.
- Sarosh Bana is executive editor of Business India