Health experts are warning New Zealand could be heading into a particularly harsh winter, with concerns a “severe” new strain of influenza may already be circulating in the country.
According to a report by Amy Ridout of Stuff, medical professionals say the combination of a potentially stronger flu variant, a new wave of Covid-19, and low vaccination uptake could result in a significant rise in illness over the coming months.
Dr Luke Bradford, a Tauranga GP and president of the Royal New Zealand College of General Practitioners, said overseas trends often provide an early indication of what to expect locally. He noted that the recent Northern Hemisphere flu season had been “a little bit worse than usual”, and warned the vaccine being introduced in New Zealand from April 1 was “not a complete match,” according to a report by Stuff.
“If that strain comes down here, we can expect similar [impacts] because we don't have exposed immunity to it,” as quoted by Stuff.
Dr Bryan Betty, chair of General Practice New Zealand, said there were signs the “severe variant” could already be present and encouraged vulnerable groups to prioritise vaccination.
“There are some warning signs here that we may potentially have a bad winter. When people tend to congregate inside, it tends to spread, and vaccination becomes really important in that situation,” as quoted by Stuff.
Alongside flu concerns, rising Covid-19 hospitalisations are adding pressure to the health system. Betty said there were increasing numbers of people being admitted, particularly those already at risk.
“There are a number of people in hospital with it and there potentially has been a number of deaths, especially in those who are at risk or have other co-morbidities,” he said, as quoted by stuff.
Community transmission of other illnesses is also contributing to concern. Schools across the country have begun notifying families about outbreaks of common bugs and urging parents to keep unwell children at home.
At Campbells Bay School on Auckland’s North Shore, principal Tumuaki Bevan Verryt said managing winter illness was a “complex balancing act”, as schools try to maintain attendance while protecting the health of students and staff. He added that cost-of-living pressures made it harder for some parents to stay home with sick children, as reported by Stuff.
For many families, the impact of seasonal illness is already being felt. Stephanie George, an early childhood teacher from Porirua, said last year brought constant sickness as both she and her young son were repeatedly exposed to bugs at daycare.
“We had a bunch of kids that had all kinds of things,” George said. “[Parents] try as best they can to keep their kids at home, but it gets tricky because everyone’s got to go to work,” as quoted by Stuff.
She said children returning to daycare too soon often led to ongoing cycles of illness.
“More kids get sick, then the teachers get sick and then it goes home to siblings and then it just goes around and around,” Stuff has quoted.
Despite taking precautions at home, George said avoiding illness remained difficult.
“I’ve tried to do so many things to stop us from getting sick, but I don’t know how much it helps,” as quoted by Stuff.
Health experts warn that, in addition to flu and Covid-19, seasonal viruses such as gastroenteritis tend to spread more easily in winter, particularly in close-contact environments.
“In winter, you get all these other viruses, which give you your coughs and cold: they take off at the same time,” Betty said, as quoted by Stuff.
“So there's a real cluster of different things that happen over winter that really create a very mixed picture and can put lots and lots of pressure on the health system and can cause illness for people,” as reported by Stuff.