The Greens could secure 20 MPs if their current 16% support is repeated at New Zealand’s November 7 election, while the Opportunity Party could hold the balance of power, according to the latest 1News Verian poll.
According to a report by 1News, the poll puts Opportunity on 7%, with National leader Christopher Luxon continuing to rule out working with the party in coalition. That position could leave Opportunity in a crucial position if neither of the major political blocs can secure enough seats to form a government.
Opportunity leader Qiulae Wong criticised Luxon’s stance, saying it was a mistake.
"We've said very clearly there are lots of things that we could work with National on... this is just old school politics at play, and come election night, they might change their tune," she said, as quoted by 1News.
Luxon, however, maintained his position, pointing to Opportunity’s policy on a land value tax.
"We want to work with parties that want no new taxes. It's as simple as that," he said, 1News has quoted.
Based on the poll, the National-NZ First-ACT bloc and the Labour-Greens-Te Pāti Māori-Te Tai Tokerau bloc would each have 58 seats in a 124-seat Parliament. Opportunity's projected eight seats would therefore be decisive in determining which side could form a government.
According to 1News, under an alternative calculation based on different assumptions around Māori electorate seats, the right bloc would remain on 58 MPs, while the left bloc would have 54 seats in a 120-seat Parliament. Both would still require support from Opportunity to reach a majority.
National recorded a one-point rise to 29% in the latest poll and would have 35 MPs under the projection. Labour remained unchanged at 28%, translating to 33 MPs.
NZ First was up one point to 10%, while ACT dropped two points to 9%. Te Pāti Māori remained on 1%, as reported by 1News.
Greens co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick said the party was not taking the results for granted.
"The polls are going to continue to bounce around at the margins over the next few weeks, and this is why it's really important to understand that nothing is set in stone," she said, 1News has quoted.
Swarbrick said the Greens would work with parties where there were "common interests" and confirmed the party would work with Labour leader Chris Hipkins to form the next government.
"But we would implore New Zealanders to think about the kinds of policies that they want to give the greatest weight to when it comes to forming government," she said, as quoted by 1News.
The poll also asked whether National should reconsider its refusal to work with Opportunity, given that a land tax was not one of the party’s bottom lines in coalition negotiations.
Around 40% of respondents said Luxon should reconsider, while 33% supported National maintaining its position. A further 28% were unsure.
The poll surveyed 1,001 eligible voters between October 1 and 5. The number of undecided voters fell two points to 11%.
Luxon remained narrowly ahead in the preferred prime minister ratings at 20%, up one point. Hipkins gained four points to reach 18%, while NZ First leader Winston Peters rose two points to 9%. Swarbrick was down one point to 7%.
Ahead of the TVNZ Leaders Debate, Hipkins described himself as "a prime minister in waiting" and said "our numbers are going to grow significantly," 1News has quoted.
He said discussions with Opportunity were "conversations to be had after the election".
Wong said the portfolios Opportunity would seek would depend on the make-up of any potential government. The party would seek environmental portfolios in a right-leaning government, while favouring business, innovation, commerce and consumer affairs roles in a Labour-Greens government.
Luxon dismissed the significance of the latest polling, saying "there's only one poll that matters, and it's November the 7th".
"Our messages are getting cut through, and I think the choices are becoming increasingly clear by the day to New Zealanders," he said, as quoted by 1News.
ACT leader David Seymour described the result as "a day of ups and downs" and claimed Opportunity had "peaked early", 1News has quoted.
Peters said he did not believe the poll.
"Oh, you haven't seen the real poll that we've seen. If you'd have seen that, you'd be far more excited," as quoted by 1News.
He also predicted Opportunity would fail to reach the 5% threshold required for parliamentary representation without an electorate seat.
"They're the mainstream media's party, and you guys are no good at politics," as quoted by 1News.