New Zealand’s national terrorism threat level remains unchanged following an annual inter-agency assessment, though updated terminology now classifies the risk of an attack as “possible”.
According to a report by 1News, the review was conducted by the Combined Threat Assessment Group (CTAG), hosted and led by the New Zealand Security Intelligence Service (NZSIS). While authorities said a terrorist attack remains a possibility, they cautioned the country “should not be complacent”.
Officials determined that the most likely form of attack would involve a lone individual radicalised online, using basic weapons such as knives or vehicles while attempting to avoid detection.
As part of the update, the traditional five-tier system, very low, low, medium, high and extreme, has been replaced with new categories: unlikely, possible, likely and expected. The current “possible” level corresponds to the previous “low” setting, 1News has reported.
Following the 2019 Christchurch mosque attacks, the threat level had been raised to “high”, which under the revised terminology would translate to “highly likely”. Authorities noted the level can be adjusted at any time based on evolving intelligence.
Director-General of Security Andrew Hampton said the revised terminology aims to make the threat assessment clearer to the public.
“The threat level of POSSIBLE is exactly what it says under our new language, a terrorist attack in New Zealand is assessed as possible. This is something we should all be concerned about," as quoted by 1News.
NZSIS said the decision to maintain the current level reflects both present events and the country’s intelligence picture. The assessment examined what officials described as the “domestic terrorism context” and “relevant international threat factors”, using both classified and publicly available information.
Hampton said the agency has been warning about a worsening global security climate.
"We have seen that deterioration continue.
“We are not yet at a point where the impact of this on New Zealand requires a change in our domestic terrorism threat level, but we are dealing with increasing complexities, which makes it harder to detect terrorism threats," 1News has quoted.
He added that a “small number” of people in New Zealand continue to express intent to carry out acts of violent extremism.
"Some almost certainly have access to the basic capabilities needed to carry out an attack," as reported by 1News.
Hampton also pointed to what he described as growing complexity in extremist behaviour, including a blending of ideological and non-ideological motivations.
"Individuals fixated on violence with mixed, unstable or unclear ideological perspectives remain a particular concern. It is also getting harder to determine whether individuals are ideologically driven, or just fixated on violence in itself," as quoted by 1News.
The CTAG review identified white identity, faith, politics and online conspiracy theories among the primary drivers of violent extremism in New Zealand.
“It is important to note that, as we’ve previously said, there is no one ideology which dominates in the New Zealand threat environment," Hampton said, 1News has quoted.
He noted that overseas attacks continue to influence extremist narratives.
"This enables people to connect without knowing the real identities and motivations of others they are dealing with."
"However, generally speaking, we are not seeing this progressing from online rhetoric to violence targeted within New Zealand. We do remain concerned about how young people are being exposed to violent extremism in the online environment," 1News has quoted.