MetService has provided further detail on the expected path and impact of Cyclone Vaianu, warning that the category 2 system could develop into a “very large, damaging system” as it approaches New Zealand.
"It will be the Far North that first experiences the strong winds, heavy rain, and rough seas brought by Cyclone Vaianu from late Saturday," MetService said, as quoted by 1News.
Forecasters expect the cyclone to track south-east across the North Island overnight Saturday and into Sunday, with severe weather warnings and watches already issued for the North Island and the upper South Island.
Late Thursday night, the system was reclassified as a sub-tropical cyclone, reflecting what MetService described as the “changing characteristics of the cyclone”.
"The combination of damaging winds, heavy rain, and coastal inundation makes this a multi-hazard, potentially life-threatening event," it said.
"The locations of the most severe impacts associated with Cyclone Vaianu, such as power outages, falling trees, flooding, slips, road closures, and isolated communities, are highly dependent on the cyclone's track," as quoted by 1News.
Despite the technical downgrade, meteorologists stress that the threat level remains unchanged. Earlier today, MetService meteorologist Heather Keats said the shift in classification “doesn't change anything for us”.
"It doesn't change the threat, it doesn't change the intensity, it simply changes the structure of it. It means it's not recieving that same tropical fuel that it was getting, so the characteristics change," as reported by 1News.
Weather warnings have since been escalated, with many regions now under orange heavy rain warnings and a red-level wind warning issued for the Coromandel Peninsula and Great Barrier Island from early Sunday.
According to 1News, Keats cautioned that communities already impacted by recent severe weather could face further disruption, including road closures, power outages, and isolation. She also warned against focusing solely on the cyclone’s centre.
"Some of the worst weather we experience with cyclones in New Zealand is actually hours ahead of that front arriving.
"So yes, that 'eye' if you like, is expected to hit over the top of the Coromandel, move over the Bay of Plenty and out over Hawke's Bay to that east over Sunday. But we're experiencing very, very heavy rain and strong winds hours ahead of that eye arriving," 1News has quoted.
Emergency authorities are urging residents to prepare immediately. National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) Director John Price described the storm as fast-moving and severe.
“There’s going to be a number of components to the cyclone. It will hit hard, with a big impact on NZ. It will be significant, it will be fast, it will leave us in its wake."
He warned of damaging winds, fallen trees, and flooding, as well as dangerous coastal conditions.
“We also know with a cyclone or ex-tropical cyclone, you’ll get the impact on the likes of the coast. We’re likely to see anywhere between 6m to 8m swells,” he said, as reported by 1News.
Comparing it to previous events, Price said current modelling resembles Cyclone Cook in 2017 more closely than Cyclone Gabrielle.
“It’s got a very similar track where it came through at the top of the North Island, came through the East Coast," 1News has quoted.
Calling the current conditions the “calm before the storm”, he urged people to use the time available to prepare.
Fire and Emergency New Zealand (FENZ) says it has already begun staging resources across the North Island, including specialist rescue teams.
"This is expected to be a fast moving and high intensity storm with a wide area of impact, including areas still recovering from severe weather in March," said FENZ Deputy National Commander Megan Stiffler.
"Flooding, landslides and falling trees can be expected, with consequent impacts on power, communications, and travel.
"We are ready to respond where we are needed, and we have extra resourcing ready to be deployed at short notice."
Stiffler urged residents to prioritise safety during the storm, particularly avoiding floodwaters.
"In floodwaters, you can’t tell how deep the water is, or how swift. The road may have been washed away and there could be hidden obstacles," she said.
"At home, tie or take down trampolines and outdoor furniture and prepare for power outages.
"We recommend using torches and battery-powered devices wherever possible to reduce the risk of unwanted fire in your home during a power outage."
Maritime authorities are also taking precautions, with Ports of Auckland clearing vessels ahead of the storm. Harbourmaster Andrew Hayton said commercial shipping schedules had been adjusted to avoid the worst conditions.
"Most of them have delayed their entry into Monday, and we’ll be sending some of them to sea on Saturday so they’re not in port during the bad weather," 1News has quoted.
He added that recreational boat owners should act now to secure their vessels.
"So the commercial boats are generally taken care of, but recreational boats, we're trying to get the message out there to be prepared. And to go out today."
"Don’t wait for the bad weather to strike, and make sure your boat is ready to encounter the bad weather that is expected," 1News has quoted.
Hayton noted that thousands of boats on moorings remain vulnerable.
"After every storm, we always get some that break off and come ashore. So we’re urging people to take special care of their vessels.
"In this particular instance, we’ve got some time to prepare for it, so go out today, make sure that your mooring is in good condition, that loose sails and tied down, and there’s nothing loose on deck,” as quoted by 1News.
Authorities continue to monitor the situation closely as Cyclone Vaianu approaches, with residents across affected regions urged to stay informed and take precautions ahead of the worsening conditions.